The renewable resources required to address climate change are themselves increasingly subject to the impacts of global warming, and the result could spell the need for a much bigger buildout than expected to meet mitigation goals, researchers have found.

“Climate change’s effects on renewables is a new area of study. … Climate change mitigation requires a significant amount of renewable energy,” Silvia Santos da Silva, a graduate student in the University of Maryland Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science told NetZero Insider.

Working with several other scientists from the university and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Santos da Silva co-authored a February report on the topic in Nature Communications.

Global warming changes wind speeds and air densities. It diffuses or increases the light from the sun and alters the volumes and flows of water funneling through dams.

These effects have been grossly understudied, the report concluded. Consequently, the money needed to invest in renewable resources might be underestimated, it said.

The report looked at Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, which have “been poorly covered by energy-sector impact studies, which are either global in scope or largely focused on Europe and North America.” At the same time, the LAC relies extensively on renewable energy resources, which account for 56% of the region’s electricity generation, compared with an average of 26% in rest of the world, the report said.

“Hydropower and bioenergy have dominated the regional RE portfolio; however, solar and wind have experienced rapid growth in installed capacity from 0.79 to 27.31 GW between 2008 and 2017,” the report said. “This growth is expected to continue due to strong policies and the strategic role of RE in many LAC countries’ climate goals.”

The interactions of global warming, hydropower, wind power, solar power and biofuels have barely been studied and could have significant impacts on planning for reliable energy sources. If the capacity from one type of resource — for example hydropower or biomass crops — shrinks because of climate change, then other renewable energy sources will have to increase, Santos da Silva said.

The bottom line is that more infrastructure for renewable energy sources will have to be built than previously anticipated, she added.

The report used complex computer modeling to estimate that LAC nations will likely have to spend an extra $12 billion to $114 billion by 2100 to cover the gap expected to materialize when climate change’s effects on renewable resources are factored in.

The report said: “Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.”

Santos da Silva and PNNL senior data scientist Chris Vernon said the Latin American study showed that the project’s computer modeling works well and can be applied to other regions. Vernon said PNNL and the study coalition are looking at other regions, but have not yet picked which area to study next.

Also, narrower individual areas of research on climate change’s effects on renewables need to be identified, they said.