Buying a Ford F-150 pickup truck with a traditional gas-powered engine could be more expensive than buying the auto company’s new electric model, the F-150 Lightning, according to a new study from Atlas Public Policy, a research and analysis firm.

Released Tuesday, the study found that over a projected eight-year life cycle, the electric F-150 would save consumers 17% in total costs of ownership (TCO) over the internal combustion engine (ICE) model. Factoring in the federal $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, the Lightning would sell for about $50,000 versus $58,600 for a comparable ICE vehicle.

Looking at cost per mile, based on 120,000 miles of driving, the Lightning comes in just under 42 cents versus 49 cents for the gas-powered 150, the report says.

Tom Taylor, policy analyst at Atlas, said the impetus for the study was “to understand, as people [are] looking at the vehicle market in 2022, what are their options and how do we provide good analysis that talks about costs?”

“People don’t buy a vehicle class; they buy a model,” Taylor said. “So, we really wanted to look at the consumer decision, which is buying a vehicle model and buying a potentially popular vehicle model.”

Thus, the study focuses on comparing EVs with popular ICE models in three other separate classes: low-cost sedans (Chevrolet Bolt versus Toyota Corolla), mid-cost sedans (Tesla Model 3 versus Lexus ES 250) and compact SUVs (Volkswagen ID.4 versus Honda CR-V). The mid-cost sedans provided the lowest savings (4.75% for the Model 3), while total costs of the Bolt and ID.4 came in 6.4% and 15.6%, respectively, lower than their gas-powered competition.

The ID.4 is “a really key vehicle because it’s a small- to medium-sized crossover [SUV], which is a very popular segment in the market,” said Alan Baum, principal at Baum & Associates, a Michigan-based automotive consulting firm. VW will soon be producing the ID.4 at its factory in Chattanooga, Tenn., which means “there’s going to be a reasonably good supply of those vehicles … offered at a very competitive price” relative to an ICE, he said.

The higher savings for the electric SUV and pickup also underline the impact of the EV tax credit, Taylor said. The tax credit phases out after an automaker has sold more than 200,000 EVs, regardless of model, so both the Model 3 and Bolt are no longer eligible.

Not ‘the Average American’

The Atlas study is one of a growing number of reports that have found EVs beating ICE vehicles on TCO. A common finding is that EV owners save on fuel and maintenance even if they pay more up front. For example, a 2020 analysis from Consumer Reports estimated that EV owners would save 60% on fuel and between $6,000 and $10,000 in total costs over the life of their vehicles.

Analysts are also increasingly seeing vehicle electrification as a major catalyst for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and accelerating the clean energy transition. BloombergNEF recently reported that global investments in EVs and charging infrastructure grew 77% in 2021 and will likely outpace investments in renewable energy in 2022. (See BNEF: Renewables, Electric Transport Driving Clean Energy Investment.)

But those optimistic figures come with a few caveats. First, while TCO is a core metric for companies looking at switching their ICE vehicle fleets to electric, it is less important for individual consumers, Baum said.

“The key issue is the payment amount,” he said, which “is based on the value of your trade-in, the financing you can obtain, rebates and, in the case of electric vehicles, incentives. … Most consumers don’t do the math [on TCO], which is why automakers are very much interested in selling to fleets.”

Other challenges include simply getting people to test drive EVs and the economics of the new car market, Baum said. Price parity is a first step, but “it doesn’t clinch the deal,” he said.

“The new car buyer is not by any means the average American. Most Americans, because of our income distribution, are priced out of the new car market,” Baum said.

The upper-income demographic that makes up the majority of new car buyers is more likely to consider TCO, Baum said, “because they have a longer-range view of finance in general. If you’re scraping day to day to pay your bills, obviously, what comes out of your pocket every day is the most important thing.”

‘Fun to Drive’

Baum sees the buildout of the U.S. charging network as less of an issue because home and workplaces are still going to be the primary places EV owners top up their batteries, and “public charging is, in fact, much more available that most consumers think,” he said. “Charging stations are available; they’re just not very well marked.”

What will drive adoption is scale. Pointing to the ID.4, he said, as more models roll off the line in Chattanooga, “there will be a wider range of product; in other words, low-end versus mid-level and higher, and that’s where this total cost of operation really comes into play because the vehicle at the showroom becomes cheaper.”

Similarly, prices for the 2022 Lightning quoted on Ford’s website start at just under $40,000 for a super economy model but hit more than $90,000 for a premium, extended-range model.

The buildout of the charging network now underway will also mean people will find out that, like charging their cell phones, “charging your car is no big deal,” Baum said. “And, oh, by the way, it’s fun to drive. You don’t have to get oil changes, mufflers, etc. Then people will start to acclimate to it.”