With its 2035 greenhouse gas reduction goal in sight, the state of Oregon is looking for ways to reach that same target in 2030 instead.

The state is analyzing two pathways. One would rely on electrification to hit the goal of reducing GHG emissions 45% below 1990 levels by 2030.

The second pathway would maximize the use of alternative fuels — RNG and hydrogen in particular — with some electrification actions included. This so-called hybrid scenario was developed because relying on RNG and hydrogen alone would not be enough to reach the GHG reduction target, according to projections.

The alternatives were discussed last week during a meeting of the Oregon Global Warming Commission. The OGWC is working with the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE) and consultants on a plan called the Transformational Integrated Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, or TIGHGER. (See Oregon Effort Seeks to ‘Close the Gap’ on GHG Goals.)

The commission plans to complete a Roadmap to 2035 report by the end of the year, in time to submit to the state’s 2023 legislature. The report could recommend implementing the electric or hybrid alternative, or some combination of the two.

Accelerated Goal

TIGHGER initially set 2035 as the target date for reducing GHG emissions 45% relative to 1990 levels. The target is an interim step toward the state’s long-term GHG reduction goal of 80% by 2050.

But an analysis found that the state would hit the 2035 target through programs and regulations already adopted and under development.

“That was great to see,” said OGWC Chair Catherine Macdonald. “Because we found out that we are on track to meet our goal for 2035 by 2035, we are looking at an accelerated goal.”

Efforts that will contribute to meeting the target in 2035 include last year’s HB 2021, which aims to reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation 80% by 2030, 90% by 2035 and 100% by 2040. There’s also the Climate Protection Program from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, which sets a declining cap on GHG emissions from fossil fuels used in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial settings. (See Oregon Adopts GHG Cap-and-invest Program.)

With those two major programs being implemented, remaining steps to reduce GHG emissions will be relatively small in scope, said Alan Zelenka, assistant director for planning and innovation at ODOE.

Additional steps to reduce GHGs might include heat pump installation in new and existing buildings, all new electric vehicle sales by 2035, a shift of drivers to car-sharing and public transit, and a reduction in food waste.

“It’s a combination of all these little projects that make up the ability to … meet the goal,” Zelenka said.

Rating Cost Effectiveness

The scenario analysis included development of marginal abatement cost curves, which rank GHG-reduction actions by their cost effectiveness.

For both the electrification and hybrid scenarios, new commercial building codes, followed by a transition in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, were found to be the most cost-effective measures. Residential and commercial building retrofits were the least cost-effective actions.

Zelenka said that under a least-cost planning approach, the most cost-effective measures would be implemented first. By the time the least cost-effective actions are implemented, their costs may have come down, he added.

But when developing a final ranking of GHG reduction actions, officials may consider co-benefits, such as job creation or healthcare cost reductions. OGWC will further discuss co-benefits next month.

IRA Impact

Some meeting participants said the Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed into law this month could improve the cost-effectiveness of certain GHG reduction actions. The new law will provide incentives for energy-efficient home retrofits and electric home appliances.

“That’s definitely very relevant to how we’re framing costs,” said commission member Nora Apter.

Zelenka said the impact of the IRA could be included in updates to the analysis.

During a public comment period, Karen Harrington with The Climate Reality Project’s Portland chapter said she was thrilled that OGWC was looking at an accelerated 2030 target. But Harrington questioned the commission’s consideration of the alternative fuels-focused hybrid scenario.

“To get us there, we have to look at all-electric,” Harrington said. “The hybrid system isn’t going to get us there.”

Commission member Tom Potiowsky responded by saying it’s “more robust” to keep the hybrid scenario in the analysis. And technology may change as time goes on, he said.

“As we go down the road, these things may become more … economically viable alternatives for us to use to reduce emissions,” Potiowsky said.