The Bonneville Power Administration predicts even steeper energy deficits among its network of dams under firm conditions compared to predictions last year, according to the agency’s annual “White Book” study. 

BPA’s Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, or the White Book, was issued May 29. It covers a 10-year period and provides predictions for the federal power marketer’s loads and resources, as well as the entire region’s retail loads, power supply obligations and resources. 

The 2025 White Book finds that under firm conditions, the federal system would have annual energy deficits between 2026 and 2035, ranging from deficits of 426 aMW to a high of 1,012 aMW.  

“Overall, these annual energy deficit projections are more than those projected in the 2024 White Book,” according to the study. In 2024, the White Book projected deficits ranging from 79 aMW to 303 aMW. 

The 2025 study also found that under median water conditions, the federal system could have a surplus ranging from 911 aMW and 364 aMW. The Northwest relies heavily on hydropower generation, which is notoriously difficult to predict and can fluctuate dramatically from year to year. 

“The federal system surplus/deficit forecasts generally have a positive relationship with water conditions,” the report stated. “Better water conditions generally yield more surplus overall. For example, the annual energy surplus can increase by over 4,000 aMW under better water conditions, while monthly surplus or deficit position can vary by over 5,500 aMW within the same year.” 

Meanwhile, the entire Pacific Northwest could have an energy surplus of 960 aMW in 2026 under firm water conditions, but this could drop rapidly to a deficit of 3,026 aMW by 2034. Under median water conditions, however, the region could have surpluses until 2032, according to the report. 

“This result was mainly driven by the increasing retail loads,” the report stated. “Overall, the annual energy surplus/deficit position projections are more surplus than forecasts from the 2024 White Book until the out years of the study period. Under median water conditions, the PNW region would begin to see energy deficits in the out years.” 

BPA’s White Book follows the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s (NWPCC) initial 20-year forecast released in April. (See NWPCC’s Initial Demand Forecast Sees Sharp Growth for NW.) 

Energy consumption in the region has hovered around 20,000 to 22,000 aMW since 2010, according to NWPCC. But energy demand could skyrocket and reach between 31,000 and 44,000 aMW by 2046, with the largest growth expected from electric vehicles and data centers, NWPCC found. 

BPA noted in the White Book that: “Many factors contribute to the uncertainty of the longer-term resources outlook for the region, such as resource retirements and development, resource adequacy and the efforts surrounding it, and other federal and state policy mandates. As with resources, there is also much uncertainty with loads including the potential for electrification and data centers coming online.” 

“While regional analysis shows surpluses in the first two years of the 10-year study period with rapidly rising deficits in certain parts of the years following that period, BPA analysis shows periodic deficits for the entire study period,” BPA spokesperson Doug Johnson told RTO Insider. “Rapidly growing load forecasts and subtle changes in water volume and runoff over the period account for the growing deficits.”

Johnson pointed out that forecast certainty declines “the deeper you get into the 10-year period.”

“However, it looks like at some point during the study period BPA will likely need to secure the output of additional resources to meet its firm power obligations,” he said.