Electricity imports from Canada into New York have continued without any change to prices, but the “fluidity and uncertainty” of President Donald Trump’s trade policy make it difficult to predict anything, state agencies reported to Gov. Kathy Hochul in March. 

“It is still unclear whether the tariffs are meant to include electricity sales,” the New York Department of Public Service, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, and Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services said in a joint analysis released March 19. “While the 10% energy tariff has been in place since March 4, and energy imports have continued unchanged since they took effect, the tariffs have not yet appeared on invoices from suppliers.” 

However, while “impossible to accurately forecast at this time,” it is expected that Trump’s threatened tariffs on non-energy products, such as steel and aluminum, would impact the supply chains for transmission and distribution facilities, generators and other utility infrastructure investments. 

Trump imposed a 10% tariff on energy imports March 4, and additional, “retaliatory” tariffs — in response to Canada’s own tariffs — on vehicles and automotive parts will begin April 2. (See Ford Suspends Ontario Electricity Tariff as Trump Wavers.) 

“While the fluidity of this situation makes it difficult to forecast the precise energy cost impacts of the tariffs, we have concluded that the potential cost impacts would not be material in the short term, but due to extensive variables outside our control, the tariffs could have significant affordability impacts in the long term,” the agencies wrote. 

Electricity costs could increase by $42 million to $105 million annually, while natural gas could increase by up to $4.4 million. The agencies based this assessment on a review by NYISO of historical imports and their own review of trade patterns.  

Liberty Gas — which services Franklin, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties, all along the Canadian border — is “heavily reliant” on imports for its roughly 14,600 residential household customers, 1,700 commercial and 21 industrial customers, according to the report. Two co-generation plants in the North Country region also depend on imports.  

The analysis also notes that about 5,400 customers in Plattsburgh receive their gas directly from Canada, and no pipelines connect the city to the state’s gas network. If imports become unavailable, the report says the local utilities in the North Country lack the specialized equipment needed to accept truck deliveries of compressed or liquefied natural gas. 

In the most extreme case, if Canada were to halt electric exports during peak summer months, “it could create reliability challenges” and retired natural gas plants could be called back into service, it says. 

Connor Waldoch, founder of Grid Status and former senior associate with the NYISO Market Monitoring Unit, told RTO Insider he suspected the impact to electricity costs could be higher than the agencies estimate. 

“I suspect that in real-world conditions, the tariff could incur costs greater than the $105 million high end of the range,” Waldoch said. “This is both from the direct imports side … as well as the potential increase in fuel costs for marginal units.” 

He noted the agencies were working under an extremely short timeline to produce the analysis in an environment of considerable complexity. Hochul, along with U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, had requested the report March 10.  

Kajal Lahiri, distinguished professor of economics at State University of New York at Albany, said that under the best of circumstances, economic forecasts are uncertain and include confidence intervals; this is not the best of circumstances.  

“The issue right now is the market is so fragile, so uncertain as to where this is going,” Lahiri said. “What is Trump going to do? What’s really in his head?” 

But regardless of what shape the tariffs take, “you know it’s going to hurt,” said Lahiri, outlining the numerous connections between the two countries. “There’s a huge business that takes place along those lines. Affecting them could mean pervasive effects on our society.”