Interregional transfers are likely to become increasingly important to Canada in the coming decade, NERC said in a supplement to the Interregional Transfer Capability Study, with Québec especially vulnerable to energy deficiencies in extreme weather. 

The release of the Canadian analysis April 29 represented the conclusion of the study process that began with the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, which ordered NERC to analyze current transfer capabilities between transmission planning regions in North America. The ERO also was directed to recommend prudent additions to transfer capability that could strengthen grid reliability and ways to meet and maintain total transfer capability. NERC released the ITCS in three installments, concluding in November 2024. (See NERC Releases Final ITCS Draft Installments.) 

The installments released in 2024 included transfers from Canadian provinces to the U.S., but not the other way around, and also did not study transfer capabilities between provinces. Congress mandated only that NERC study transfer capability within the U.S. But the ERO said in 2024 that the ITCS “would be incomplete without a thorough understanding of the Canadian limits and available resources.” Canadian government and industry stakeholders also requested that NERC extend the study to their territory, according to the supplement. 

NERC’s goal with the Canadian analysis was to apply “the same yardstick” that it did with the U.S. planning regions, Manager of Transmission Assessments Saad Malik said in a webinar accompanying the report’s release. As with the earlier components, the ERO developed its analysis based on historic weather conditions from 2019 to 2023, along with synthetic modeled datasets from 2007 to 2013, for a total of 12 weather years. 

NERC used the weather data to test performance of the regions across each hour of 2033, using the load and resource mix predicted in the ERO’s 2023 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, to identify potential energy deficiencies. The ERO then looked for transfer additions that could address them. 

A “potential for energy deficiency” existed in all 12 weather years for Nova Scotia, the report said, with five other provinces showing possible deficits in some years. Extreme cold weather drives the shortfalls in Québec and Alberta, along with one weather year in Saskatchewan; another weather year sees heat-driven shortfalls in Saskatchewan, with similar results across five weather years in Ontario. 

In all, the ERO recommended nearly 14 GW of additional transfer capability, which it said would address all of the resource deficiencies. By contrast, the U.S. component recommended 35 GW of added capacity across the U.S. planning regions but said even these additions would not be enough to resolve all deficiencies. 

The Canadian analysis noted that several provinces now have greater transfer capability with their U.S. neighbors to the south than with other provinces. For example, British Columbia has 2,170 MW of capacity into Washington state and 2,795 MW the other way, compared to, respectively, 855 MW and 1,000 MW into and out of neighboring Alberta. These figures apply to winter; summer transfer capabilities differ slightly in most cases. 

Ten gigawatts of additions were recommended for Québec alone, which the study noted is likely to experience difficulty meeting growing demand in the next 10 years, with which local generating capacity is not projected to keep pace. The additions were recommended from New York (4,200 MW), Ontario (2,600 MW), New England (2,600 MW) and New Brunswick (900 MW). Additional recommendations included:  

• • Nova Scotia: 500 MW from New Brunswick.
  • Saskatchewan: 500 MW from MISO West.
  • Alberta: 600 MW from Saskatchewan.
  • Ontario: 1,600 MW from PJM East (900 MW), MISO West (400 MW) and Manitoba (300 MW).

The MISO West-to-Saskatchewan and PJM East-to-Ontario transfers are potential new interfaces. 

In a media release, NERC CEO Jim Robb said the combined Canada and U.S. analyses represented “an unprecedented and vital assessment” that “provides a complete picture of the crucial role that interregional transfer capability across Canada plays in assuring the reliability and resilience of the interconnected North American grid.”