New York generators had to rely on oil as gas was scarce throughout the Eastern Interconnection during the Jan. 25-27 winter storm, NYISO said in a preliminary analysis that was a last-minute addition to the Installed Capacity Working Group’s agenda Feb. 2.
“We wanted to be timely and at least talk about some high-level stuff about what happened last week for folks so we could at least level-set some of the conversation,” said Shaun Johnson, NYISO vice president of market structures.
While the storm, dubbed “Fern” by the Weather Channel, caused few disruptions in the Northeast, it had such a large footprint that it affected demand and prices across the East.
“For those of you who are upstate New York natives, last week’s weather was cold, but it wasn’t extreme New York cold,” Johnson said. “The really important part of this is that it was cold in Atlanta.”
The weather created high demand for natural gas, causing price spikes that rippled through the market. Downstate generators had difficulty obtaining natural gas at all. Index prices during the winter storm were in the $50 to $200/MMBtu range, with some spot quotes in excess of $300. Average prices are typically much lower, with Johnson citing October 2025’s average of $2.17/MMBtu as an example.
Dual-fuel units shifted to trucked-in oil, which is less efficient than piped gas. Simultaneously, snow on solar panels and overcast conditions prevented solar resources from shaving down the peak load.
“During the first two days of Fern, we went through 20% of our oil inventory in New York,” Johnson said. He said the ISO ran its fuel survey multiple times over the week and heard stories of oil-fired generators being continuously served by caravans of tanker trucks “running out the gate” the entire week.
Johnson opened a map of the U.S. from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that showed the entirety of New England, New York and most of the PJM footprint under an extreme cold advisory. Cold weather extended southward into Tennessee Valley Authority and SPP territory. Effectively, the entire eastern half of the U.S. was in a state of elevated natural gas and electricity demand.
Johnson cited the NYISO 2025 Gold Book forecast of 24,200 MW of peak load in winter. He said the ISO had come close to that several days the previous week. He displayed a graph of day-ahead peak load forecasts during Fern that plateaued just under the Gold Book forecast for several days.
Additionally, several emergency actions were taken to reduce demand. The Special Case Resource program was activated multiple hours daily Jan. 25 to Jan. 30.
External prices were also extremely high, making it impossible to stabilize prices with cheap imports, Johnson said.
