With net-zero emissions a “precondition” for limiting global warming, the 26th Conference of the Parties is going to be “a reality check for global ambition on climate,” according to Joseph Majkut with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The countries that have considered or committed to net-zero emissions targets cover 72% of global emissions, but their actions would only limit warming to about 2.5 degrees Celsius, said Majkut, who is director of the CSIS energy security and climate change program.

“In terms of the Paris agreement target, we’re operating behind the ball,” he said during a CSIS press call on Monday.

Paris agreement signatories agreed to limit global warming to below 2 degrees, but Majkut says there is “tension” among G20 nations as well as between developed and developing countries over how far below 2 degrees the world can or should go.

Heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record last year, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin released on Monday.

The bulletin “contains a stark, scientific message for climate change negotiators at COP26,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “At the current rate of increase in GHG concentrations, we will see a temperature increase by the end of this century far in excess of the Paris agreement targets of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”

Concentration of carbon dioxide reached 413.2 parts/million in 2020 and is 149% of the pre-industrial level, the bulletin said.

The big factors at play at COP26 will be the extent to which countries are willing to make further commitments toward achieving net-zero emissions this century, and how quickly they are willing to realize those commitments, according to Majkut.

“It’s important … that net-zero goals don’t become an excuse to punt on near-term progress,” he said. In a world governed by net-zero commitments, he added, climate outcomes will be tied to how quickly large emitters are able to reduce their current GHG emissions.

The conference opens in Glasgow on Sunday, and President Biden will attend Nov. 1-2.

Whether his presence will have a positive influence on global climate ambition is not clear because Biden “is standing on slightly shaky ground,” Majkut said. Biden needs to be able to demonstrate at the conference that his Build Back Better Act has the necessary provisions and support to achieve his pledge to reduce emissions 50% by 2030.

But the act “is getting winnowed away in Congress,” Majkut said.

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Sectoral approaches to emission reductions will be on the rise at COP26, according to Majkut.

The U.S. and the European Union, for example, are leading an effort to reduce emissions from methane 30% from 2020 levels within the decade, particularly in oil and gas production. Big producers, including Saudi Arabia, have signaled their support for the Global Methane Pledge announced in September, but other countries, such as Russia, are reluctant to participate, he said.

The pledge will launch formally during the conference.

Majkut also expects coalitions backed by private companies to make announcements during the conference about reducing emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, such as steel, shipping or aviation.

“The extent to which those groups are able to ensure long-run emissions reductions … depends on how large those coalitions can be built,” he said. “And voluntary actions from the private sector are not necessarily as robust as government commitments.”

In addition, Majkut said, climate finance could govern COP26 discussions as they relate to phasing out traditional coal technologies, one of the largest emitting sectors.

Commitments to phase out coal are a central goal of the conference, but it’s a challenge for developing countries.

“They’ve made very clear that that’s a hard thing to do without a significant amount of financial support from developed countries,” Majkut said. Developed countries promised $100 billion a year in Paris to developing countries, and they have missed that target.

“Developing countries are asking for more,” he said. “It’s not clear to the extent to which the developed countries are able to make firm commitments for climate finance.”