Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race Tuesday and GOP gains in the legislature showed that predictions that the commonwealth had become a reliably blue state were incorrect and raise questions about its commitment to reaching 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050.

Energy policy was not a central issue in Youngkin’s campaign against Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who served as governor from 2014 to 2018. Youngkin instead campaigned on divisive education issues and courted Donald Trump supporters while keeping the former president himself at arm’s length.

But the two candidates also differed sharply on the 2020 Virginia Clean Economy Act, with McAuliffe calling for eliminating fossil fuel power by 2035, while Youngkin said even the law’s 2050 target is unrealistic.

The VCEA, signed into law by Gov. Ralph Northam (D) in April 2020, requires Dominion Energy Virginia to be 100% carbon-free by 2045 and Appalachian Power by 2050. It also calls for closing most of the state’s remaining coal-fired generation by 2024. (See Va. 1st Southern State with 100% Clean Energy Target.)

Although Youngkin’s campaign website contained no detailed energy policy proposals, the former private equity executive was critical of the state’s policy in interviews and debate appearances, saying he wouldn’t have signed the VCEA.

“The Virginia Clean Economy Act has taken us in the wrong direction,” Youngkin said during a radio interview, saying it “doesn’t allow Virginia to actually meet the power demands [of] the rip-roaring economy that I’m going to build.

“Yes, we can have more wind and solar. Yes, we need more natural gas. Yes, we need to innovate and find ways to actually use coal resources cleanly,” he added.

“I’ve spoken to the heads of the utilities,” he said during a debate in September. “They don’t even know how to [reach the VCEA’s goals.] We’re going to turn Virginia into California. … Get ready: Brownouts and blackouts are coming.”

Youngkin, who is from Hampton Roads, acknowledged the state is facing rising sea levels from climate change. (Voters in Virginia Beach voted overwhelmingly Tuesday in favor of a referendum authorizing the city to issue up to $567.5 million in debt for flood mitigation projects.)

Although he said he “wholly support[s]” Dominion’s offshore wind project, Youngkin also criticized state officials for their negotiations. “All of the supply chain is not in America and not in Virginia. We should have negotiated American content, Virginian content, in that,” he said.

McAuliffe, who predicted the Portsmouth Marine Terminal will become a “green energy manufacturing hub” for offshore wind, said Youngkin’s criticism was “a crazy talking point” because the U.S. is just beginning to develop an OSW supply chain. (See Virginia Builds out OSW Supply Chain with Turbine Blade Plant.)

Chances for Change

The VCEA was a stunning turnaround for Virginia’s energy policy, spurred by Democrats’ takeover of the House of Delegates and Senate in November 2019. Among other things, it committed Virginia to joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and made the state’s voluntary renewable portfolio standard program mandatory. It also established 5,200 MW of offshore wind as “in the public interest,” up from 16 MW.

It’s unclear whether Youngkin, who will begin his four-year term in January, will be able to win changes to the bill any time soon.

The bill passed on a near-party line vote in the House, where Democrats held a 55-45 majority going into the 2021 elections. Tuesday’s results left Republicans with at least a 50-50 tie in the House — and a 51-49 edge, if one close race is resolved in their favor.

But Democrats retain a 21-19 majority in the Senate, where members will not face re-election until 2023.

Republicans could attempt to put their stamp on the State Corporation Commission (SCC) in January, when the seat held by Angela Navarro will expire. Navarro, who served in both the Northam and McAuliffe administrations, replaced former Chair Mark Christie when he joined FERC.

The SCC is charged with implementing parts of the VCEA, including Dominion and Appalachian’s integrated resource plans and RPS programs, according to spokesman Ken Schrad. He also noted that the “bulk of” Dominion’s OSW project has not yet been filed with the commission.

Schrad declined to speculate on how the election might affect the commission’s work. The commission “will apply the law as it is now,” he said.

Dominion Campaign Money Questioned

Although energy policy was not a major issue during the campaign, Dominion’s ties to McAuliffe did come under scrutiny.

Youngkin ran commercials in the closing days of the race criticizing McAuliffe for signing legislation that restricted the SCC’s ability to review the company’s electricity rates. The law is one of several that SCC staff concluded allowed the company to earn about $1.1 billion in excess profits from 2017 to 2020. “Dominion bought Terry McAuliffe for $280,000,” one ad said.

The commercial aired after Axios reported last month that although McAuliffe said he would not accept any contributions from the utility in this year’s race, the company nonetheless gave $200,000 to a political action committee tied to top Democrats that attacked Youngkin from the right in social media ads questioning why he had not been endorsed by the National Rifle Association. Dominion CEO Robert Blue said the company hadn’t properly vetted the PAC and had asked for its money back.

Dominion had donated $75,000 to McAuliffe’s campaign in 2013 and gave another $50,000 to his inaugural committee, Axios reported.

Dems Anxious

Republicans’ strong showing in Virginia and New Jersey left Democrats anxious about their prospects in the congressional midterm elections next year. Though New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy became the first Democrat to win re-election since 1977, the race was not called until Wednesday evening, with Murphy leading by about 19,000 votes as of press time.

The results also increased the pressure for congressional Democrats to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill and a Democrat-only reconciliation bill that includes $550 billion in climate spending.

“The No. 1 concern voters have raised with me over the last several weeks has been inability of Congress and government in general to get things done at a time of great need for the country,” Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) told The New York Times. “So the best thing we can do in Congress is to pass these damned bills, immediately,” referring to the budget reconciliation and infrastructure bills.