The 27th U.N. Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP27) kicks off Sunday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, with an expected 30,000 attendees all focused on reinvigorating countries’ action on climate commitments in the face of worldwide inflation, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and growing fears of food and energy insecurity.

Host country Egypt has laid out ambitious goals for the conference, calling for action on a range of pledges made at last year’s COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, from reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, to solid progress on international financing for adaptation and “loss and damage.”

But Nisha Krishnan, lead for climate resilience at World Resources Institute Africa, sees significant headwinds going into the conference, such as escalating national debt in developing countries. “We have almost half of the [African] continent going into high debt and debt distress situations,” Krishnan said during a COP preview webinar on Wednesday, sponsored by the Environmental and Energy Studies Institute. “This is obviously influencing what is expected out of COP, as well as what can be delivered, particularly financially this year. …

“We just no longer have a climate conversation,” she said. “It has become an economics and finance conversation.”

Krishnan and other energy experts going to the conference agreed that expectations for Sharm el-Sheikh are muted compared to last year’s COP26 in Glasgow, where attendees reached an agreement aimed at keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, the goal set in the Paris Agreement in 2015.

“One of the things about this COP is that it is almost a process COP,” Krishnan said. “There are plenty of things that need to be discussed this year; that we’ll need to announce them next year or the year after. … This is where the hard work gets done.”

But Ryan Finnegan, deputy manager for U.S. climate policy at the World Wildlife Fund, believes that events and action outside the official negotiating halls could “end up being more impactful, both for the delivery of strong COP outcomes [and] achieving implementation goals on the ground.”

“Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, we’ve seen a real robust increase in subnational and nonfederal participation and interest in tracking events that are happening at these international negotiations,” Finnegan said.

As countries move toward implementing their climate commitments amid calls for transparency and accountability, “there is interest not only at the national government level, but at the institutional and organizational level [for] using COP as a mechanism to force announcements or share progress points, to share expertise,” Finnegan said.

The U.S. delegation will include at least three state governors (still unnamed) and dozens of state officials and lawmakers, he said.

COP veteran Tracy Bach, co-focal point of the Research and Independent Non-Governmental Organizations (RINGOs) of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), also pointed to the agenda of themed days that Egypt has organized.

“The Egyptian presidency is focusing on solutions,” Bach said. “The idea here is, in addition to what we know are the main agenda topics … they’re bringing in a wide array of experts, a fair number of them drawn from Africa as well as the global south … to keep fueling the negotiations and expanding the areas of convergence.”

The schedule includes a Youth and Future Generations Day on Nov. 10, Gender Day on Nov. 14 and Biodiversity Day on Nov. 16.

Biden, Midterms and the IRA

COP27 could also see a potential test of U.S. leadership on global climate action, with the credibility and momentum created by the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and its $369 billion in clean energy funds at risk pending the outcome of the midterm elections on Tuesday.

While Republicans have acknowledged that even if they win control of the House of Representatives and Senate, they will not be able to repeal the law, they could try to pick off specific provisions, according to E&E News.

The midterm results will almost certainly be a factor in President Biden’s appearance at the conference, where he is scheduled to speak on Nov. 11. In the run-up, his administration has been rolling out programs and funding from the IRA, such as the recent $9 billion in rebates to help homeowners pay for energy-efficient home upgrades. (See related story, States to Receive $9B from IRA to Boost Home Efficiency Upgrades.)

But the IRA in and of itself me ay not be enough to build trust with some countries. Multiple analyses of the law, such as one from the Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit project based at Princeton University, have found that if fully implemented, the law would get the U.S. only four-fifths of the way to its 2030 goal of cutting its emissions 50 to 52% below 2005 levels.

It gives the U.S. a stronger hand going in, Bach said. But “the U.S. still has a long way to go in building trust in these negotiations.”

The IRA is “a domestic effort and has no bearing on the international climate finance piece where the U.S. might be worse in terms of its contributions,” Krishnan said.

Loss and Damage

A key test of U.S. credibility will be its position on “loss and damage,” which is one of COP27’s likely flash points between developed and developing nations. The issue turns on whether developed nations, like the U.S., which have been the world’s heaviest GHG emitters, should pay some form of restitution to developing nations that have sustained irreparable damages from the extreme weather caused by climate change.

The issue is on the conference’s provisional agenda, which has already raised concerns about the scope of any discussions, Krishnan said. The UNFCCC has appointed “two co-facilitators, which are Germany and Chile, to help lead a conversation and discussions around what this agenda item should be, such that there is no agenda fight on the first day and that the agenda is adopted,” she said.

The U.S. has dragged its feet on setting up an official structure or mechanism to finance a loss and damage fund, pushing for a watered-down statement in the final agreement at COP26, calling for “dialogue” on this issue. Special Climate Envoy John Kerry took some significant flack in September suggesting that with limited financing available from governments, funds for mitigation and adaptation should be the top priorities for international climate action.

Kerry has since backpedaled a bit. In a recent interview with Time, he said that the U.S. will take part in conversations on loss and damage at Sharm el-Sheikh and is open to talking about “potential financial arrangements” to help developing countries.

But some African stakeholders say loss and damage may not be the right approach. Speaking at an Atlantic Council webinar on Wednesday, Ayaan Adam, senior director and CEO of the Nigeria-based African Finance Corp., said the focus for international finance should be on resilience and addressing Africa’s massive “infrastructure deficit.”

“What we’re saying is, ‘Don’t build it in the old way.’ [If you] integrate resilience, you don’t have loss and damage,” Adam said. “So it’s not about loss and damage. It’s about understanding the science. … It’s a prevention, so you avoid loss and damage.”