The policy changes and financial signals of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will slow the addition of solar, storage and wind capacity, but only for a few years, BloombergNEF predicts.

BNEF in its second-half 2025 “U.S. Clean Energy Market Outlook” concludes that OBBBA’s cutback of incentives along with ongoing tariff fluctuations have slowed renewables development in 2025 and pushed back final investment decisions in the short term.

But longer-term momentum remains strong because the demand for power is growing and there is a strong economic argument for meeting that need with renewables.

BNEF places the inflection point around 2028.

It expects a short upward jump in capacity additions in 2026 as developers rush to start projects in time to qualify for tax credits, then a sharp drop-off into 2028. After 2028, wind, storage and solar additions will resume their steady growth, the report predicts.

BNEF issued the second-half report Oct. 31. From 2025 through 2035, it predicts:

• • 432 GW of utility-scale solar capacity will be added, 25% less than predicted in the first-half 2025 report.
  • 74 GW of onshore wind will come online, 46% less than in the first-half report.
  • 204 GW/862 GWh of battery storage capacity will be added, 6% more than in the previous report.
  • Zero offshore wind capacity will be added from 2029 through 2035.

BNEF reports that that while OBBBA has reshaped U.S. energy policy, some of the upward and downward pressures on clean energy deployment that predate OBBBA (such as demand growth, corporate procurement, permitting delays and interconnection delays) will continue to influence investment decisions and timelines.

OBBBA’s exact impact on renewables remains to be seen. Since it was signed into law July 4, the clean energy market has responded by rapidly safe harboring projects and adjusting supply chains.

In its initial post-OBBBA forecast, BNEF expected a 26% decline in 2025-2035 wind, solar and storage installation. The new report cuts that down to 21% due to a faster and fuller ramp-up of battery factories that comply with new requirements; a project pipeline that is larger than previously thought; and further guidance issued on the details of OBBBA’s changes.

But the view forward is far from clear. BNEF lists numerous moving pieces that could further influence the U.S. clean power buildout, including:

• • permit revocations and stop-work orders issued by the Trump administration;
  • the as yet unknown enforcement stance the IRS will take on clean power tax credits;
  • the lack of clarity on rules surrounding foreign entities of concern;
  • the Trump administration’s overt support for coal and gas power plants;
  • rising construction costs and labor shortages;
  • the slow pace of construction of the primary alternatives to solar and wind, gas turbine and nuclear reactors; and
  • falling interest rates.

Costs already are rising, BNEF said: Utility-scale photovoltaic capital expenditures are 2 to 5% higher in 2025 than 2024 and onshore wind is 3 to 17% higher, depending on the region. Project contingency budgets are being set higher amid this uncertainty, further increasing capex.

Tariffs, meanwhile, raise the U.S. clean energy sector to a new level of volatility and uncertainty. As the authors point out: “U.S. tariffs on clean energy equipment have varied tremendously since President Trump took office.”

The growth of a U.S. manufacturing base that could reduce the impact of these tariffs also has been stunted by the policy gyrations of the past nine months.

BNEF reported that investments totaling more than $90 billion have been announced in the domestic solar and battery manufacturing supply chains since passage in 2022 of the Inflation Reduction Act and its generous tax credits.

“While investment climbed steadily each quarter since the passage of the IRA legislation, the threat of the IRA’s repeal and the ensuing passage of the OBBBA caused new investment announcements to grind to a halt this year,” the authors write. “During the second and third quarters of 2025, no new investments were announced for any of the solar and battery supply chain segments.”

And that creates a ripple effect.

The authors write that “[t]he introduction of tariffs has further complicated matters: A lack of factories to make upstream components is keeping proposed downstream manufacturing facilities dependent on imports, which are subject to these higher tariffs.”