A new report from Oregon’s Global Warming Commission (OGWC) says although the state is a long way from meeting its 2035 greenhouse gas reduction target, it should nonetheless advance that goal by five years. 

The Oregon Climate Action Roadmap to 2030 says the state is expected to meet its goal of reducing economywide GHG emissions to at least 45% below 1990 levels by 2035, but cautions that “there is a great deal of work that needs to be done before then.”

And despite the workload, the OGWC calls for the state to accelerate its 2035 GHG-reduction target to 2030 because “the best available climate science indicates the need to go further and faster to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.”

“The new Roadmap to 2030 reflects that urgency and demonstrates that it is not only feasible to achieve the state’s 2035 goal by 2030, but doing so will also provide substantial economic and health benefits for Oregonians,” OGWC Chair Catherine Macdonald said in a statement accompanying release of the report on Friday.

Oregon’s GHG targets are set out in Executive Order 20-04, which former Gov. Kate Brown (D) issued in 2020 after Republican state senators walked out of the legislature to prevent a vote on a bill establishing a cap-and-trade program for the state. The order directed state agencies to implement policies to help reduce GHG emissions to at least 45% below 1990 levels by 2035 on the way to an 80% reduction by 2050.

The roadmap is the product of the Transformational Integrated Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction (TIGHGER) project, a yearlong effort that convened the OGWC, state officials, consultants and various stakeholders to address the fact that Oregon’s existing planned actions on climate change would not be sufficient to meet state targets. Those actions include three major efforts being led by the state’s Department of Environmental Quality, including: 

• implementation of the Climate Protection Program (CPP), designed to drive down emissions from stationary sources, transportation and natural gas by setting declining caps on GHGs; 
• an expansion of the Clean Fuels Program (CFP), which will decrease the carbon intensity of fuels sold in the state by 25% by 2035; and
• a program to reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation 80% by 2030, 90% by 2035 and 100% by 2040.

Other state actions include the Heat Pump Rebate Program, the Community Renewable Energy Program and adoption of California’s Advanced Clean Cars II and Advanced Clean Trucks rules. (See Groundbreaking California Clean Truck Rules Win EPA Waiver.)

Despite existing efforts, Oregon’s 2020 GHG emissions totaled 58 MMTCO2e, 13% above its target of 51.3 MMTCO2e (a 10% reduction from 1990 levels). Emissions rose further, to 61 MMTCO2e, in 2021, 19% above the 2020 goal. The roadmap “is aimed at ensuring Oregon does not miss its next GHG emission reduction goal,” the commission said.

Relying on analysis from the TIGHGER process and OGWC discussions, the roadmap recommends six “overarching strategies for maintaining and increasing Oregon’s climate action ambition,” including:

• supporting “robust and continuous implementation” of the state’s existing climate programs and
   regulations, such as the CPP and CFP;
• adopting updated GHG goals consistent with the best available science;
• advancing a set of new climate actions based on the TIGHGER analysis to help the state accelerate its GHG reduction goal to 45% below 1990 levels by 2030, rather than 2035;
• supporting “further study and analysis to continue to guide effective climate action over time;”
• strengthening “governance and accountability” to ensure the state meets its targets; and
• positioning the state to “take full advantage” of federal money directed at climate action.

‘Scientific Imperative’

The roadmap fills out those strategies with 26 “sub-recommendations” containing more concrete actions.

“For example, policies supporting the development and availability of transmission could help alleviate a potential barrier to achieving the clean electricity targets in HB 2021,” the report says.

The roadmap also urges the state to ensure that programs benefit environmental justice communities that suffer a disproportionate burden from the impacts of pollution.

Some of the most challenging recommendations fall under the second strategy that seeks to update the state’s GHG goals. They include clarifying that Oregon’s policy is to pursue GHG reduction actions consistent with the goal of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. That would entail reducing emissions to at least 45% below 1990 levels by 2030, followed by reductions of at least 70% by 2040 and 95% by 2050. 

“[A] 2050 goal of 95% below 1990 levels would be consistent with the leadership our neighbors to the north [Washington] and south [California] are showing, better reflect the existing ambition of some of Oregon’s key climate programs, and result in the strongest emissions reductions — which is ultimately the scientific imperative,” the report says.

Under the third strategy — advancing new climate actions — the OGWC lists an extensive set of recommendations that include a 50% improvement in energy efficiency of industrial facilities not covered by the CPP by 2050; exceeding Advance Clean Truck targets by 2035; boosting rooftop solar output to 16.3 TWh by 2035; increasing Amtrak ridership; and implementing congestion pricing on highways in metropolitan areas.

To improve accountability for achieving GHG targets, the report calls for an increased role for the OGWC itself. They include boosting dedicated staff by one full-time equivalent (FTE) from the current 0.3 FTE; expanding the list of OGWC’s non-voting members to include representatives from additional state agencies, such as the economic development agency Business Oregon, the Department of Fish and Wildlife, and the Oregon Health Authority; and expanding the OGWC’s voting membership to include a youth representative and an expert in environmental justice.

The roadmap also calls for additional funding for the OGWC to create and maintain a dashboard and clearinghouse for tracking climate action, emissions and carbon sequestration data.

The OGWC additionally recommends that Oregon agencies coordinate their efforts in pursuing funds from the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act.

“The amount of federal funding that is coming available for climate, clean energy, and natural and working lands projects is unprecedented and presents a huge opportunity for Oregon,” the roadmap says. “Many of these programs will be competitive in nature — meaning Oregon will be competing with other states for limited funds. Oregon will need to be ready to apply for these funds with credible, well thought out programs and projects.”