The New York Public Service Commission barred a major gas utility from proactively expanding its gas mains starting early next year, trying to move the company closer to the state’s climate-protection goals.

The Dec. 14 decision labels as insufficient the long-term plan proposed by National Fuel Gas and makes multiple modifications beyond the ban on network enhancement (Case 22-G-0610).

NFG’s final plan, submitted in July 2023, was itself the third iteration, incorporating feedback offered by the state, its consultant and stakeholders on earlier versions submitted in December 2022 and May 2023.

But a consensus could not be reached on the final version of the plan.

Voicing some confusion about what they were actually doing — approving the plan, approving it with changes, rejecting it — members of the PSC voted 5-1 to attach more than a dozen directives to the plan and ordered NFG to move forward with it, to provide annual updates and to submit its next long-term plan in December 2026.

Later Dec. 14, NFG said it could not provide an immediate response to the 120-page order. It said via email:

“Having just received the order from the Public Service Commission, officials at National Fuel need time allowing for a careful review of the Long-Term Plan findings to determine next steps. National Fuel has provided very real solutions for decarbonization that will have an immediate and long-term impact.”

The state’s landmark Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019 mandated substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The CLCPA sets no specific target for gas utilities, but reduction of natural gas use and decarbonization of buildings both will be central to any wholesale reduction.

The failure after more than a year to reach consensus on NFG’s long-term gas plan speaks to the challenge of balancing conflicting priorities and evolving regulations while following through on the mandates.

The gas industry, regulators and advocates from all corners are working to carve out a new business model, plan the clean energy transition, save the planet, address socioeconomic problems and avoid crushing the state’s utility customers with a tab that will run into at least the tens of billions of dollars.

As they do this, the Legislature and governor periodically will roll out new mandates that may change whatever equations have been hammered out.

Sea Change

In March 2020, the PSC ordered what it called a “fundamental shift” in the way gas utilities do business in New York (Case 20-G-0131), moving them toward a more transparent and comprehensive process that emphasizes alternatives to new infrastructure investment.

NFG’s long-term plan was the first proposal in response; other major New York gas utilities are preparing long-term plans as well.

PSC Chair Rory Christian commended NFG for its efforts and acknowledged the challenges of going first — particularly as a gas-only utility.

“I think looking at it in a broad scale, this plan has done a good amount of what we had hoped it would do, and the planning process as a whole looks to me to be working as intended,” he said at the meeting.

“But despite all that hard work, ultimately what NFG provided fell short. In its current form, the plan is not aligned with our mandates. … There are just too many deficiencies.”

NFG serves roughly 500,000 customers in one of the colder, poorer parts of New York state, plus 250,000 more across the border in Pennsylvania.

It built its plan on an all-of-the-above approach that includes increased efficiency and hybrid gas-electric heating systems that keep its existing infrastructure in service while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Thermal energy networks, renewable natural gas and hydrogen also would play a role.

The monthly bill impact would be substantial. NFG said “nonparticipating customers” — those not participating in billing or efficiency programs — would see their monthly costs jump from less than $100 to anywhere from $217 to $335, depending on the scenario used.

Stakeholders found many aspects of the plan unacceptable.

The PSC sought to address some of these questions in its order Dec. 14. Among the modifications it imposed, the PSC told NFG to:

• • Explain how it arrived at its system design of 74 heating degree days, which would equal an average 24-hour temperature of minus-9 degrees, something that has not happened since 1982.
  • File by May 31 a proposal for one or more demand response programs for implementation in the winter of 2024-25.
  • Cease by March 31 any further network expansion or enhancement — it can continue to hook up new customers who request service, as directed by current regulations, but it cannot proactively extend or enhance existing gas mains.
  • File within 90 days a proposal explaining how it will revise its Partnership for Urban Revitalization in Western New York to encourage electrification and remove incentives for additional natural gas use.
  • File by July 31 a report listing infrastructure upgrades and extensions planned in 2025 with a budget greater than $1 million.
  • Meet with stakeholders and develop and issue requests for proposals for at least two capital projects employing nonpipe alternatives in calendar year 2024.
  • Schedule a technical conference and develop a benefit-cost analysis.
  • Provide details on its energy efficiency programs and quantify their benefits to disadvantaged communities.
  • Formulate a pilot project to test hybrid heating options that include both cold climate and standard heat pumps by June 30.

The all-of-the-above approach is not a favorite strategy of clean energy advocates, particularly when it includes RNG or hydrogen.

The Environmental Defense Fund praised the decision up to a point, and said PSC needs to go further.

“The Public Service Commission rightly found that the company’s 20-year plan fell short of New York’s climate goals and directed the utility to halt natural gas expansion programs and improve information transparency,” senior attorney Erin Murphy said via email. “But the regulators left important questions unresolved, such as the need for limits on deployment of biomethane and hydrogen. The PSC must do more to give utilities clear direction to plan for decarbonization.”