NYISO is modeling the Empire Wind offshore wind project as in-service despite federal orders to cease construction, staff said in presenting updated assumptions for the second-quarter Short Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) to the Transmission Planning Advisory Subcommittee meeting May 6.
Alison Stuart, NYISO manager of reliability studies, explained that a scenario would be included in the modeling that would factor Empire Wind as out of service, but it was included in the base case.
Stakeholders questioned why the Empire Wind project was still assumed under the base case rules, citing the Trump administration’s targeting of the project. (See Feds Move to Halt Construction of Empire Wind 1.)
“Can you explain why? It’s clearly on hold,” a stakeholder asked.
“We don’t have any information from the developers regarding a delay of service date,” said Ross Altman, senior manager of reliability planning.
“You might not have anything from the developer, but there’s an executive order signed by the president of the country,” the stakeholder replied.
Altman responded that NYISO is tracking the news regarding Empire Wind closely, but that the project still met their base case inclusion rules.
The first-quarter STAR reaffirmed that New York City needed the Gowanus and Narrows peaker plants to maintain summer reliability into 2027. (See NYISO Reaffirms Need for NYC Peakers in Summer.) Stuart explained that the second-quarter STAR would include the deactivation of three generator units at Gowanus and Narrows, representing 64 MW of nameplate capacity. The deactivations do not include the plants’ other units at Gowanus and Narrows that the ISO designated to remain in service after their scheduled retirement under the state Department of Environmental Conservation’s peaker rule.
Stuart went on to explain that in terms of load forecast assumptions, the ISO was using the 2024 Gold Book’s projections, as the 2025 edition is not coming out in time for the study. In response to stakeholder questions, Altman said that the Gold Book was usually out in time for the third-quarter STAR.
“It just seems like you’re using very old load data, especially for New York City,” responded Chris Casey of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “There were conversations about whether we should be using that forecast in the Q1 STAR, and here we are using it for the Q2.”
The ISO is also still modeling cryptocurrency mining and hydrogen production loads as “flexible” and able to turn off during peak conditions. A stakeholder asked why this was the case, given that several interconnection studies the ISO had presented to TPAS earlier in the meeting were going to be so inflexible. Altman said that those projects were data centers and not cryptomining or hydrogen facilities and that data centers were already modeled as inflexible load.
NYISO staff also presented updates on the biennial Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) in development.
Last year the CRP found a reliability need in New York City by 2033, but the ISO determined this year that the need had been resolved after updating its forecasts. (See NYISO Cancels 2033 Reliability Need for NYC.)
Altman said NYISO is still extremely worried about uncertainties and diminishing reliability margins for the city, particularly in transmission security.
The CRP, Altman said, will focus on identifying and quantifying looming uncertainties on the planning horizon. This would include load growth, system updates, generation project delays, winter risks, and generation retirements and failures.
