The Northeast Energy and Commerce Association’s Fuels Conference on Wednesday tackled the subject of natural gas bans by local governments, questioning whether they are necessary for the “transition to a clean energy future or major government overreach with unintended consequences.”

Judy Chang, undersecretary of energy in the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, said that the transition away from natural gas “is not going to be easy,” noting that gas demand has increased amid decarbonization efforts and that it is used for both heat and electricity.

“New England has very cold winters, and approximately 50% of our households heat with natural gas, and that number has been increasing,” Chang said. “In addition, we are at the end of long pipelines.”

Regulatory Assistance Project principal Richard Cowart concurred, saying, “Phasing out natural gas is probably the most challenging climate policy topic” he has encountered in nearly 30 years of working to decarbonize the power sector.

“I just think [natural] gas is going to be harder,” Cowart said. “The automobile fleet is easier than converting buildings away from fossil fuels, but climate science tells us it has to be done.”

Cowart said gas utilities need new business models and a regulatory transformation as well. “I went through electric industry restructuring, and this is starting to feel a lot like that.”

Cutting away quickly from fossil fuels like natural gas is not possible, according to Cowart. “Cold turkey is not on the menu,” he said. “We can only exit traditional fossil gas and oil as quickly as we can add renewable electricity, perhaps some clean gases, heat pumps and building renovations.”

Tamara Small, CEO of NAIOP Massachusetts, which represents companies involved in commercial real estate, said that her organization recognizes the effects of climate change, and its 1,700 members embrace projects designed to reduce carbon emissions. Small said any transition away from fossil fuel needs to be done in a “phased approach,” especially in new construction.

“Banning the use of natural gas for new construction means that residents will be paying for electric stoves and other electric appliances that drive up individual utility costs and may burden residents who cannot afford large increases,” Small said. “Energy efficiency needs to go hand in hand with electrification, but there is still a cost impact.”

Paul Hibbard, principal at Analysis Group, said he has not seen “careful economic analysis or assessment of what is the pathway” to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

“The most difficult part of decarbonization is putting a pin on the board about when we need to be all-electric in buildings. [It] will be important to provide that runway … to get carbon reductions going much sooner,” Hibbard said.

Tepper Talks About Mass. DPU Petition

Nearly two years after a series of explosions and fires in natural gas lines just outside of Boston in September 2018, the Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office filed a petition with the Department of Public Utilities to investigate the future of the industry as the state “transitions away from fossil fuels and toward a clean, renewable energy future by 2050.”

Rebecca Tepper, the chief of the office’s Energy and Telecommunications Division, said during a keynote speech that “numerous audits and reports” showed how vulnerable the “whole state gas system is.”

“If we sit back and do not plan for how to manage this transition, we will repeat the mistakes of the past, and vulnerable communities will be the ones who suffer,” she said.

The first phase of the investigation, Tepper said, should require gas companies to submit detailed economic analyses and business plans that project the state’s future gas demand, including potential revenues, expenses and investments, and input from stakeholders on necessary regulatory, policy and legislative changes. The second phase should focus on developing and carrying out the changes required in a way that protects the state’s gas consumers.

“It’s critical that we start planning this now, and that we include all stakeholders in our process,” Tepper said. “I feel like we are at a crossroad. It’s not unlike where we were in restructuring, and we need to work together as a stakeholder community to figure this out.

“We’re not alone in Massachusetts thinking about this,” she said. The petition points to similar actions in New York, where an investigation was opened in March to ensure more useful and comprehensive planning for natural gas usage and investments, and California, which started a proceeding this year to examine the safety and reliability of its natural gas infrastructure, while the state focuses on achieving its long-term decarbonization goals.

“This transition is happening; it’s happening faster than even we thought it would, so neither the status quo nor kicking the problem down the road is going to work,” Tepper said. “This is the time. Not five years or 10 years from now.”

Renewable Natural Gas Opportunities

Judith Judson, Ameresco’s vice president of distributed energy systems, said that the Northeast has a chance to be an early leader in renewable natural gas.

Judson said that Ameresco had discussions with utilities in the Northeast on adding RNG from landfills, waste-water treatment plants or large waste-producing farms to their supply portfolios.

“In terms of carbon emissions, it’s considered carbon neutral,” Judson said. “There are a growing number of studies that [RNG] is cost-effective relative to other decarbonization options for heating.”

RNG can be delivered through existing infrastructure without any further capital investment, she said, and it is a baseload, dispatchable renewable fuel source to support resilience objectives.

Judson said that an “economy-wide perspective” is needed to meet carbon goals in a “cost-effective way,” and RNG should be a part.

Looming Mystic Closure Reduces Flexibility

Jake Anderson, head of gas and power fundamentals analysis at Macquarie Energy, said during his keynote that the announced retirement of Exelon’s Mystic Units 8 and 9 “reduces flexibility” for New England gas markets.

Asked if there will be renewed interest in gas storage development from independent or pipeline-affiliated companies, given the gap in storage capacity and production volume, Anderson said, “it’s a tough environment for building storage because the costs haven’t necessarily come down all that much.”

Regardless of the economics, Anderson added, if gas demand grows and LNG terminals need storage, “we’re going to see at some point a resurgence of storage building; it’s just a question of when and how quickly.”