The New England States Committee on Electricity (NESCOE) on Wednesday presented a concept that would integrate the RTO’s only existing routine transmission planning process — system reliability planning — with the consideration of public policy-driven options.

NESCOE General Counsel Jason Marshall told the Planning Advisory Committee that the Overlay Network Expansion (ONE) Transmission is one potential approach to transmission planning, calling it “a concept for feedback, not a NESCOE proposal.”

Under the concept, ISO-NE would extend the 10-year horizon of its reliability model to consider public-policy driven demand, infrastructure and resource mix changes up to 40 years into the future. The study would use resources in the interconnection queue or other assumed resources and identify potential delivery locations. Load growth and retirements also would be considered.

If the RTO identifies a public policy solution to be integrated with the preliminary reliability solution, it would be added to the Regional System Plan (RSP) as a ONE Transmission project. If ISO-NE does not identify a public policy solution to be integrated, it would confirm the preliminary reliability project as the preferred solution and put it in the RSP as a Reliability Transmission Upgrade.

“The idea here is really to leverage the regular planning that [ISO-NE] does for system reliability to get insight into potential public policy transmission options,” Marshall said.

ONE Transmission does not incorporate all the changes NESCOE has identified as needed in its vision statement, which would require tariff changes and should proceed on its track, Marshall said. But ONE Transmission does align with the Vision’s identification of the need for new planning mechanisms for integrating clean energy resources.

FERC Order 1000 required procedures to consider public policy-driven transmission needs. NESCOE’s 2019 Annual Report listed as one priority an assessment of whether the public policy transmission planning process could benefit from adjustment.

According to Marshall, a transparent planning process provides greater visibility into potential cost-effective investments to integrate clean power in addition to an opportunity to co-optimize infrastructure projects, promoting reliability and other public policy objectives. A multi-use transmission project could avoid separate siting proceedings, potentially only years removed, involving the same right-of-way or substation.

Consistent with the Vision Statement, any changes to cost allocation will be considered separately from planning concepts, Marshall said.

Since ONE Transmission is conceptual, Marshall asked that feedback be sent to ISO-NE for posting on the PAC website rather than to NESCOE.

Final Draft Energy, Seasonal Peaks Before 2021 CELT

ISO-NE’s Jon Black and Victoria Rojo presented the PAC with the final draft energy and seasonal peak forecasts, a last step before releasing the 2021 capacity, energy, loads and transmission (CELT) report on May 1.

Other than implementing the new methodology for passive demand resources (PDRs), which Black and Rojo discussed at the March PAC meeting, the RTO made no changes to the energy and summer and winter demand forecast methodologies since CELT 2020:

• The final draft 2021 gross annual energy forecast for the region is lower than the CELT 2020 forecast by 4.5% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2029. The gross annual energy for the region is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% from 2021 through 2030, up 1.4% from CELT 2020.
• The final draft 2021 gross 50/50 summer peak demand forecast for the region is lower than CELT 2020 by 3.9% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2029. Gross summer peak demand is expected to rise at a CAGR of 0.7% from 2021 through 2030, down from the 0.9% in CELT 2020.
• The final draft 2021 gross 50/50 winter peak demand forecast for the region is lower than CELT 2020 by 6.0% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2029. Gross winter peak demand for the region will be higher at a CAGR of 1.3% from 2021 through 2030, up 1.1% from CELT 2020.

Additionally, Black and Rojo said there was the consideration of the evolving impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic as reported in Moody’s Analytics Economic Outlook. The RTO used multiple versions of the economic outlook (November 2020 and February 2021). February’s economic forecast was the most optimistic. It stated that new COVID-19 infections peaked in January and herd immunity is expected to be achieved by September 2021, along with a relaxing of state and local government restrictions. It also incorporates the impacts of the recent pandemic relief package and an assumption that President Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda is enacted in the second half of this year at a total cost of less than $1 trillion.

Environmental Update

Patricio Silva, lead analyst in system planning for ISO-NE, delivered an environmental update and said that in 2020, fossil, nuclear, renewable and other generating resources and transmission assets complied with federal and state environmental requirements. In 2021, however, state requirements are evolving, and there is a state of flux at the national level with the transition from the Trump Administration to the Biden Administration.

Siting energy infrastructure remains challenging across New England, affecting fossil, renewable and other generating resources and new or upgraded transmission resources, all needed to maintain reliability.

Estimated native power system carbon emissions of 21.4 million metric tons in 2020 increased 3% compared to 20.8 million in 2019. Shifts in energy consumption, most likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, resulted in lower monthly net energy demand in 2020, but net system emissions increased compared to 2019.

The Energy Information Administration and other short-term projections suggest annual emissions will increase through 2022 in the region because of increased natural gas generation despite increased nuclear and renewable energy output. Carbon emissions are expected to range between 25-36 million metric tons through 2027.