ISO-NE reported Wednesday that the region has sufficient power generation resources to meet the forecasted peak demand this winter but warned that during periods of extreme cold weather, “natural gas pipeline constraints can limit the availability of fuel for natural gas-fired power plants.”

Based on regular surveys on generators’ fuel supplies, the RTO estimates that more than 4,500 MW of natural gas-fired generating capacity is at risk of not being able to get fuel when needed.

Storms and extreme cold can also impact oil and LNG availability and deliveries, the RTO said.

This is the first winter season since the 2,028-MW Pilgrim nuclear plant retired in May. The plant’s capacity is being replaced by several new resources, including three dual-fuel plants, as well as solar and wind resources.

By the Numbers

The RTO forecasts a peak demand of 20,476 MW, assuming normal winter lows (7 degrees Fahrenheit), and 21,173 MW under extreme winter weather (2 F).

Resources with a Forward Capacity Market capacity supply obligation represent 32,747 MW (94%) of the region’s total resources.

Last winter’s peak demand of 20,773 MW occurred Jan. 21, 2019, during the hour ending 6 p.m. The all-time winter peak in New England was 22,818 MW on Jan. 15, 2004.

ISO-NE is developing an Energy Security Improvements proposal, with stakeholder discussions on LNG supplies, market mitigation and a second demand curve. (See NEPOOL Markets Committee Briefs: Nov. 12-13, 2019.) The RTO has until April 15, 2020, to file a long-term fuel security mechanism under FERC’s second extension since its original order last July (EL18-182).

– Michael Kuser