PJM expects to call on its demand response resources from five to nine times per year starting in the 2014/15 delivery year, up from an expected one to five calls in 2013/14.
The projection reflects the increasing volume of DR clearing in PJM capacity auctions and the impact of plant retirements, which are expected to reduce the Installed Generation Reserve Margin (IGRM) to 9% in 2014 from the current 13%.
PJM briefed the Planning and Market Implementation committees last week on the projections, the results of a GE-MARS Monte Carlo loss of load probability model. The simulations used 2002 data for a “typical” load shape (the same year used in the recent NERC Probabilistic Assessment report).
Likely DR calls are highest in Southwest MAAC and lowest in the Dominion zone (see previous chart).
Scenario analyses showed the results were highly dependent on the amount of generation reserves assumed, that is, whether uncleared internal generation will be available to serve PJM load. Assumed emergency import capabilities, particularly into SWMAAC, also had a significant impact. The results were not affected much by the assumed DR triggers.
Since the 2010/11 delivery year (June 1 – May 31), PJM has declared 11 Emergency DR events, resulting in nine Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) 2s. EEA2s, called to implement load management procedures, are posted on the Reliability Coordinator Information System (RCIS) and on the PJM Emergency Procedures site.
