The scheduling tool that would be used to optimize power trading between PJM and NYISO is accurate within $5/MWh more than two-thirds of the time, according to a new analysis provided to members last week.

Intermediate Term Security Constrained Economic Dispatch (IT SCED), a tool that PJM operators use to determine resource commitments, would take on a new function in screening interregional trades if its accuracy passes muster with stakeholders.

Under a new product, Coordinated Transaction Schedules, traders would be able to submit “price differential” bids that would clear when the price difference between NYISO and PJM exceed a threshold set by the bidder.

CTS, which is intended to reduce uneconomic power flows between PJM and NYISO, was conditionally approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Feb. 20. It could be implemented as soon as November if the Markets and Reliability Committee votes to endorse the accuracy of IT SCED. (See NYISO Scheduling Product Wins FERC OK.)

PJM officials told members last week that an analysis of data for the NYISO Interface found the 30-minute forecast that would be used by CTS was accurate within +/- $5 an average of 69% of the time between February and December 2013. It missed by more than $20/MWh about 11% of the time.

The tool was most accurate during the fall months and least accurate in the winter (see chart).

One stakeholder asked PJM to provide the raw data from the forecasts, saying the $5 threshold used in the RTO’s analysis was too broad to evaluate the tool. “Margins on power trades are much less than $5/MWh,” he said.

PJM began posting IT SCED’s forecasted LMPs in December for member review.  It plans to begin publishing the forecasts in real time at the end of April.

An analysis by NYISO of its 15-minute forecasts found that they were within +/- $5 from 61% to 73% of the time, based on monthly averages for 2013.