Some generators may have taken advantage of January’s weather to boost their prices, the Market Monitor said in its quarterly State of the Market report Friday.

“The behavior of some participants during the high demand periods in January raises concerns about economic withholding,” the monitor said. “In particular, there are issues related to the ability to increase markups substantially in tight market conditions.”

The Monitor’s report cites the “markup index,” a measure of participant offer behavior. In the real-time energy market, 58% of marginal units had an average markup index at less than or equal to zero in the first quarter. But 14% of marginal units had average markups at or exceeding $150/MWh, compared to only 4% in the first three months of 2013.

In the day-ahead energy market, almost 87% of marginal units had average markups less than zero and an average markup index less than or equal to 0.03. “Nonetheless, some marginal units do have substantial markups,” the report said. Markups increased on days in January when demand was highest.

The markup index is calculated as (Price – Cost)/Price. The index ranges from -1.00, when the offer price is less than marginal cost, to 1.00, when the offer price is higher than marginal cost.

Competitive Offers Required

The Monitor said capacity resources should be required to make “competitive” offers into the energy market, an obligation that is not clear under current Tariff language.

“Selling capacity into the PJM capacity market but making energy offers daily of $999 per MWh would not fulfill the requirements of a capacity resource to make a competitive offer but would constitute economic withholding,” the Monitor explained in the 2013 State of the Market report. “This is one of the reasons that the rules governing the obligation to make a competitive offer in the Day-Ahead Energy Market should be clarified for both internal and external resources.”

The Monitor’s suggestion of economic withholding came a day after Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner Tony Clark told PJM members that the commission had seen no evidence that market manipulation played a role in the high natural gas and electric prices in January.

In an interview yesterday, Market Monitor Joe Bowring said his staff will be interviewing generators with high markups and may refer the matter to FERC’s enforcement unit if it doesn’t receive satisfactory answers. “The Tariff requires us to refer potential enforcement matters to the commission,” he said.

Bowring said his staff is also investigating whether any generators engaged in physical withholding by improperly claiming outages. PJM saw as much as 22% of its generation out of service in early January, three times the normal winter outage rate.

Bowring said some gas-fired units took losses to operate in January. “We want to make sure that others also followed through” on their obligations, he said.

Inadequate Incentives

The Monitor’s report said the high generation outage rate in early January was an indication that the current balance of incentives and penalties is inadequate. “At present only half of capacity market revenues are at risk for failure to perform on high demand days. Gas-fired units with a single fuel are exempt from any capacity market revenue impact that results from lack of fuel outages on high demand days,” the report said.

The obligation of capacity resources to offer into the day-ahead energy market “exists regardless of whether gas procurement is difficult, regardless of whether gas prices are high and regardless of whether gas procurement is risky,” the Monitor said.

Stakeholders this month began work on developing potential winter testing requirements for generators. Consideration of incentives for generator performance and penalties for failures will be considered in a separate initiative, PJM said. (See PJM Seeks Action on Winter Lessons.)

Day-Ahead Scheduling Reserves

The Monitor also reported withholding in the day-ahead scheduling reserve (DASR) market, a problem it has cited before which worsened in 2014.

PJM uses the market to acquire supplemental, 30-minute reserves. Because the direct marginal cost of providing DASR is zero, offers greater than zero constitute economic withholding, the Monitor said.

In 2013, 12% of offers in the market exhibited evidence of withholding. The clearing price in the first three months of 2014 was $0.06 per MW, double the price for the first quarter of 2013.

About 74% of resources offered at less than $1 in the first quarter, with 11.5% of resources offered at more than $5 per MW.

The 2013 SOM report recommended incorporating the “three pivotal supplier” test in the market to prevent the exercise of market power during times of system stress, ranking it as a low priority item. PJM said it does not believe the change is warranted given the minimal impact of the market on consumer costs.