VALLEY FORGE, Pa. — The Planning Committee last week endorsed comprehensive revisions to Manual 19 to incorporate changes to the load forecast model.
The changes account for trends in equipment and appliance saturation and energy efficiency; revise weather variables; update weather station assignments to zones; and modify the weather normalization procedure.
Members decided to remove a change that would have added distributed solar generation to the model this year, saying they wanted to see more data on its predicted effect first.
PJM’s John Reynolds said that in response to requests for more information about how the new load model was developed, PJM will be producing a white paper on the subject early next year.
Steve Herling, PJM vice president for planning, encouraged the group to approve the changes, carving out the solar section, instead of holding them up.
“Our concern obviously is that we don’t want to get behind the curve, which we did to a degree with energy efficiency,” he said.
Panel Re-examining Reserve Requirement Study
The Resource Adequacy Analysis Subcommittee will be holding two education sessions as part of its effort to re-examine all modeling assumptions for the 2016 Reserve Requirement Study.
The first is scheduled for 1 to 4 p.m. on Nov. 24. The second is 9:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. on Dec. 9. Both will be held in person at the Valley Forge campus and via WebEx.
The subcommittee will schedule meetings as needed through the first quarter of next year in order to finalize RRS assumptions and bring them to the committee for endorsement in April.
PJM’s Tom Falin said it is the first re-evaluation of the process in about seven years. Planners are focusing on the full study to underscore that the installed reserve margin “is not the most important output from the study,” Falin said. Members had questioned the recent increase in the IRM, saying it seemed counterintuitive under the new Capacity Performance model. (See “IRM, FPR Rising; PJM Methodology Challenged” in PJM Planning Committee Briefs.)
Falin said the RAAS discussion will focus on three drivers: the selection of PJM and world load models, the development of capacity models and the representation of the world area. It also will consider the impact of CP on RRS assumptions.
Two More Units Headed for Deactivation
Two generating units have applied for deactivation in January.
Perryman Unit 2, a 51-MW facility in the BGE transmission zone, will be deactivated Jan. 1.
Interim operating measures have been identified until a baseline upgrade is completed there by June 2017. That upgrade, a new 115-kV switching station, is expected to cost $26 million, the cost of which is being designated to Baltimore Gas and Electric.
The second unit to be decommissioned is the 2-MW Pottstown landfill, in the PECO transmission zone. Landfill owner Waste Management said that flows of landfill gas have declined significantly since the landfill was closed in 2005 and that there is no longer enough gas to drive the turbine. It will be deactivated Jan. 15. No reliability impacts have been identified by the closure.
— Suzanne Herel