By William Opalka

RENSSELAER, N.Y. — NYISO and the New York Public Service Commission have begun a joint study to determine how a changing generation resource mix will affect the bulk power system over the next 15 years.

The PSC outlined the study at the Wednesday meeting of the NYISO Management Committee.

The recently unveiled State Energy Plan, part of New York’s Reforming the Energy Vision initiative, set a goal of 50% renewable energy generation by 2030.

The PSC has started a proceeding to develop a clean energy mandate to reach the goal (15-E-0302). Gov. Andrew Cuomo has ordered rules completed by June. (See New York Would Require Nuclear Power Mandate, Subsidy.)

The study’s goals are to determine what mix of generation and distributed energy resources will be needed by 2030 to meet public policies, and what gas and electric transmission upgrades are needed to serve generation and maintain reliability.

“There are going to be significant renewable energy resources needed to comply with both the [federal] Clean Power Plan and the SEP,” said Leka Gjonaj, chief of the Bulk Electric System at the PSC.

Models would be run contemplating various scenarios for 2024 and 2030, extrapolating results from NYISO’s most recent transmission needs analysis. Sensitivities — such as the retirement of the Indian Point nuclear facility, high natural gas prices, high load levels and the reduction or loss of dual-fuel generation — will be included.

Another scenario contemplates compliance with the CPP under different schemes. The third is implementation of the SEP and REV.

The study would determine resource mixes under each scenario and the infrastructure needed to support them. Ratepayer impacts are outside of the scope of this study.

Some members of the committee questioned how the study can incorporate the clean energy standard when its rules have not been finalized.

The base case scenarios and sensitivity results of the study have deadlines that run from February to July, with a final report due Aug. 9.

The consultants in the study will be paid about $850,000, with about $550,000 coming from NYISO. The ISO will also be contributing about one full-time-equivalent employee on the project, although several staff members will participate.

Also participating are the New York State Energy and Research Development Authority, New York Department of Environmental Conservation, the Utility Intervention Unit of the Department of State and the New York Transmission Owners.