By Suzanne Herel

Low load growth and the shift from coal- to natural gas-fired generation mean a need for smaller and fewer baseline transmission projects, PJM said in its 2015 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan report last week.

A slow recovery from the last recession and evolving customer behavior — such as more efficient home appliances and behind-the-meter solar installations — have stunted load growth, the report said.

Those drivers also have lessened the need for new large-scale transmission projects.

In 2015, the Board of Managers approved 214 new baseline projects totaling $1.9 billion and 207 new network transmission projects totaling $1.3 billion.

The $3.2 billion total represented a $2.6 billion net increase in approved projects since the end of 2014. The new projects were partially offset by cost changes in existing projects as well as the removal of 202 network projects representing $677 million and 42 baseline projects totaling $300 million.

Among the new projects was the controversial stability fix at Artificial Island in New Jersey, home to the Hope Creek and Salem nuclear reactors. (See FERC Questions Fairness of Artificial Island Cost Allocation.)

The canceled network upgrades were the result of the withdrawal of 157 generation interconnection requests, a quarter of which were for wind-powered units. Together, the requests totaled 15,302 MW. Withdrawals can reflect developers’ reactions to capacity auction prices and public policies on renewable fuel, PJM said.

The report notes the continuing shift from coal to natural gas because of plant retirements driven by environmental regulations and competition from cheap natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica reserves. PJM also is seeing new wind and solar units being encouraged by federal and state renewable energy incentives, while load has been tempered by demand resources and energy efficiency programs.

“Market activity suggests that total natural gas-fired generation capacity may exceed coal within several years,” the report said.

PJM projects 20,300 MW of coal will have retired between 2011 and the end of 2016, much of which is more than four decades old.

In 2015, PJM received deactivation notices totaling 1,626 MW, down from 4,291 MW the previous year and 7,745 MW in 2013. That compares with a total of 11,000 MW for the eight years ending Nov. 1, 2011.

Of all the active, under construction and suspended generation interconnection requests received by the end of 2015, more than 72% were for natural gas, more than 17% involved wind power and 2% represented nuclear units.

To address thermal and voltage reliability issues, PJM now includes low load and winter peak system conditions in its regional planning criteria.

Since 1999, PJM’s board has greenlit nearly $28.3 billion in transmission system upgrades, including $23.5 billion in baseline projects and $4.8 billion in facilities needed to connect more than 71,000 MW of new generation.