The key question about the electrification of U.S. transportation is no longer if it is technically or economically feasible, but how fast it can be accomplished and what federal, state and local policies will be needed to drive rapid and widespread consumer adoption.

A new report from the University of California, Berkeley envisions a scenario in which 100% of new car and light-duty truck sales will be electric vehicles by 2030, with medium- and heavy-duty truck sales going all-electric in 2035. Meeting this those aggressive targets, however, will require the installation of 120 GW of new solar, wind and storage each year through 2035 to decarbonize the grid, and the installation of 300,000 to 350,000 new EV chargers annually for the next 20 to 30 years.

Speaking at a media preview of the report on April 8, co-author Nikit Abhyankar, a senior scientist at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy, admitted the numbers are high, but with the right policies, achievable. And, he argued, the benefits will outweigh the costs.

According to the report, because EVs cost less to operate and maintain, making all new cars electric will provide $2.7 trillion in consumer savings over the next 30 years, which translates into average household savings of $1,000/year. Shifting the 100% target for new car sales even five years to 2035 would defer over $400 billion in consumer savings, Abhyankar said.

Emissions reductions for the transportation sector — now the largest source of GHG emissions in the U.S. — would be similarly dramatic, 60% by 2035 and 93% by 2050. The reduction in air pollution alone would avoid 150,000 premature deaths by 2050, Abhyankar said.

“If you also add the avoided deaths due to [decarbonizing] the grid, that number increases by approximately 80,000 to 85,000,” he said.

The onslaught of numbers is underpinned with some of the basic economics driving the growth of EV sales in the U.S. — battery price and performance, Abhyankar said.

“All the experts have been wrong on how fast battery prices are going to [drop], and that includes us,” he said. “The industry has always beaten all the battery price forecasts.” EVs should reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles by the mid- to late 2020s, he said, buoyed by the growing commitments of automakers and corporate fleets to EVs.

So, with GM, Volkswagen and Ford all rolling out EVs, why not let the market take care of the transition?

“The quick answer to that is business-as-usual growth in EVs will not be consistent with climate neutrality goals and also [limiting climate change UC to] the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal we really need to achieve,” Abhyankar said.

Targeted, Phased-down Incentives

At present, EVs account of about 2% of new car sales in the U.S. While arguing that technical and economic feasibility should be the central factors in growing the market, Abhyankar acknowledged that significant policy and regulatory support will be needed.

More than 40 recommendations are laid out in a companion report to the Berkeley study, compiled by policy consultants Energy Innovation. Sara Baldwin, director of electrification policy at the firm, zeroed in first on federal and state standards and the role of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the EPA in setting, respectively, fuel economy and emissions standards.  Both should be made more rigorous over time “such that tailpipe emission standards reach zero grams per mile by 2035,” she said.

These strong standards would, Baldwin said, “support investments in mass production of EVs across all brands and classes, and this, in turn, supports consumer preferences for more models and helps bring vehicle costs down more quickly. It really is the most cost-effective way of getting there,” she said.

The prime example is California, where the state’s Zero Emission Vehicle Program — which sets 2035 as the target for all new car sales to be zero-emission vehicles — has helped create the largest EV market in the nation.

Expanded, but carefully targeted incentives are also needed to reach more people and market segments, Baldwin said, such as providing incentives for public and private fleet conversions. “We also recommend phasing down the incentives over time to help avoid gaming and ensure that the vehicles themselves are becoming more cost-effective,” she said.

Making EVs the Default Choice

The impact of EVs on the grid is another core area of concern in both the Berkeley and Energy Innovation reports. Adding 300,000 new chargers to the electric system will increase electricity demand about 2.2% a year through 2050, Abhyankar said, which will in turn require about $10 billion a year in investments for charging infrastructure and distribution system upgrades.

Energy Innovation’s recommendations in this area are largely focused on utility best practices — analyzing and developing maps for hosting capacity for EV chargers (as some utilities already do for solar), streamlining permitting and interconnection processes, and integrating EV chargers into distribution planning.

Longer-term impacts of rising demand linked to EVs will need to be monitored, but Abhyankar believes they will be minimal. “Wholesale electricity costs and distribution costs on a per kilowatt-hour basis do not increase beyond 2020 levels, primarily because of the large reduction in solar, wind and battery prices,” he said.

The transportation section of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan is well aligned with many of the Energy Innovation recommendations, Baldwin said. Biden’s $174 billion to grow the U.S. EV market “sends a clear message that this area requires attention, focus and investment to compete globally,” she said.

Other potential synergies include the plan’s call for investment in domestic EV manufacturing, replacing diesel trucks and school buses and ensuring access and benefits for low-income and disadvantaged communities. Biden, however, puts no timeframe on transportation electrification, a move that could be politically sensitive for his ties to working class voters and unions.

By its own admission, the Berkeley report is limited by its focus on technical and economic feasibility. But, as Biden prepares for his international Leaders Summit on Climate next week, the report’s insistence on making EVs the default choice for new car buyers sooner rather than later could play a vital role in meeting his aggressive climate goals.

[Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this article mistakenly attributed the study to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.]