Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require “unprecedented international cooperation” and an end to new fossil fuel development, the International Energy Agency says in a sobering study that identifies more than 400 milestones needed to transform the global fossil-fuel-based economy to one mostly powered by renewables.

It is “perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

IEA says countries responsible for 70% of global CO2 emissions have pledged to achieve net zero, but that “most pledges are not yet underpinned by near‐term policies and measures. Moreover, even if successfully fulfilled, the pledges to date would still leave around 22 billion tons of CO2 emissions worldwide in 2050. The continuation of that trend would be consistent with a temperature rise in 2100 of around 2.1 °C,” well above the 1.5 °C limit target under the Paris climate accord.

“Despite the current gap between rhetoric and reality on emissions, our Roadmap shows that there are still pathways to reach net zero by 2050. The one on which we focus is — in our analysis — the most technically feasible, cost‐effective and socially acceptable. Even so, that pathway remains narrow and extremely challenging, requiring all stakeholders — governments, businesses, investors and citizens — to take action this year and every year after so that the goal does not slip out of reach.”

The IEA’s proposed pathway would achieve net zero with no offsets outside the energy sector and with little reliance on negative emissions technologies.

Still, the magnitude of the changes is immense. For example:

• The world economy grows by 40% by 2030 while using 7% less energy. Energy efficiency must accelerate to an annual rate of energy intensity improvements averaging 4% to 2030, about three times the average over the past two decades.
• Methane emissions from fossil fuel supply must fall by 75% over the next 10 years.
• Two‐thirds of total energy supply in 2050 is from wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and hydropower with solar becoming the largest source, at 20% of the total. Solar PV capacity must increase 20‐fold by 2050 while wind power jumps 11‐fold. About 630 GW of solar PV and 390 GW of wind must be added annually by 2030, four times the record levels set in 2020. “For solar PV, this is equivalent to installing the world’s current largest solar park roughly every day,” IEA says.
• Fossil fuels, now almost 80% of total energy supply, drop to slightly more than 20% by 2050. Fossil fuels would be limited to goods such as plastics, in facilities with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and in sectors where low‐emissions technology options are not available. New fossil fuel boilers must be phased out beginning in 2025, replaced by electric heat pumps. No new oil or gas fields or coal mines are permitted. One bonus: Improved air quality will result in 2 million fewer premature deaths globally from air pollution in 2030 than today.
• Electricity rises to almost 50% of total energy consumption in 2050 with total electricity generation increasing more than two‐and‐a‐half‐times current levels. The least efficient coal plants are phased out by 2030, and those still operating by 2040 are retrofitted. Almost 90% of electricity comes from renewables, with most of the remainder from nuclear. Annual investment in electric transmission and distribution increases from the current $260 billion to $820 billion in 2030.
• Electric vehicles rise from about 5% of global car sales to more than 60% by 2030. Sales of new internal combustion engine cars end by 2035. The number of EV public charging points increases from 1 million today to 40 million in 2030, and annual battery production for EVs increases from 160 GWh to 6,600 GWh in 2030.
• Low‐emissions fuels are used where electrification is not economical, with aviation using biofuels and synthetic fuels, and ammonia used for shipping.

Need for R&D

While most of the CO2 reductions through 2030 in the IEA pathway come from existing technologies, by 2050, almost half the reductions must come from technologies currently at the demonstration or prototype phase. “In heavy industry and long‐distance transport, the share of emissions reductions from technologies that are still under development today is even higher,” the report says.

IEA cites advanced batteries, hydrogen electrolyzers, and direct air capture and storage as among the biggest opportunities.

“Innovation over the next 10 years — not only through research and development (R&D) and demonstration but also through deployment — needs to be accompanied by the large‐scale construction of the infrastructure the technologies will need. This includes new pipelines to transport captured CO2 emissions and systems to move hydrogen around and between ports and industrial zones.”

Electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and CCUS currently receive about one‐third of the level of public R&D funding of more established low‐carbon electricity generation and energy efficiency technologies. IEA estimates a need for $90 billion of public money globally to complete demonstration projects before 2030, almost four times the $25 billion currently budgeted.

“The required roll‐out of hydrogen and CCUS after 2030 means laying the groundwork now: Annual investment in CO2 pipelines and hydrogen enabling infrastructure increases from $1 billion today to around $40 billion in 2030.”

All Hands on Deck

The report says the transition will require citizens’ willingness to make changes to their transportation and the way they heat and cook.

About 55% of the cumulative emissions reductions in the pathway will come from consumer choices such as purchasing an EV, retrofitting a house with energy efficient technologies or installing a heat pump. Behavioral changes, such as replacing car trips with walking, cycling or public transport would contribute about 4% of the emissions reductions.

The report predicts new activities and investments in clean energy will produce 14 million jobs by 2030 and that spending on more efficient appliances, electric and fuel cell vehicles, and building retrofits and energy‐efficient construction would create an additional 16 million jobs.

“But these opportunities are often in different locations, skill sets and sectors than the jobs that will be lost as fossil fuels decline,” IEA acknowledged. “In our pathway, around 5 million jobs are lost. Most of those jobs are located close to fossil fuel resources, and many are well paid, meaning structural changes can cause shocks for communities with impacts that persist over time,” it said. “This requires careful policy attention to address the employment losses. It will be vital to minimize hardships associated with these disruptions, such as by retraining workers, locating new clean energy facilities in heavily affected areas wherever possible, and providing regional aid.”

Achieving net zero will require “co‐operation among all parts of government that breaks down silos and integrates energy into every country’s policy making on finance, labor, taxation, transport and industry,” the report says. “Energy or environment ministries alone cannot carry out the policy actions needed to reach net zero by 2050.”

It also will require more than individual governments reducing their emissions, IEA said. “It means tackling global challenges through coordinated actions. … For many developing countries, the pathway to net zero without international assistance is not clear.”

Reaction

Because IEA has come under fire in the past for overestimating the costs of renewables and underestimating the speed of their penetration, climate activists said the report’s call for the end of new fossil fuel development could be a seminal moment.

“Until now, the IEA’s research has been used to play down transition risks faced by the fossil fuel industry and as a support for inadequate energy and climate policy,” said Daniel Stewart, senior research associate for As You Sow, a nonprofit that promotes environmental and social corporate responsibility through shareholder advocacy. “IEA’s new scenario … signals major disruption on the horizon for industries reliant on fossil fuels.”

“The fossil fuel industry has long used the @IEA to justify its inaction,” tweeted former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. “Today, it got a wake-up call.”

“Pretty clear message from the @IEA for all of my friends in the investment and finance space — no new investment in fossil fuels,” tweeted activist Tom Steyer.

The Climate Action Network International took a more cautious view. “Today is a big win, but if the @IEA is serious about steering the world towards a 1.5˚C-aligned future, it must put 1.5˚C at the heart of all its analysis and communications moving forward,” it tweeted.