One day at a time, one person at a time.
That is what it will take ERCOT to regain the trust of Texans scarred by last February’s disastrous winter storm, interim CEO Brad Jones told RTO Insider on Tuesday night.
To illustrate his point, Jones related his chance encounter with a woman following a town hall meeting in the Dallas suburb of Coppell. It was one of three dozen or so stops on his listening tour that eventually became a “blur,” but one of few he won’t soon forget.
He and another staffer were walking to their car in the parking lot, hoping they wouldn’t find their tires slashed. A woman then approached Jones and the staffer, who reacted warily.
“Living in Austin, I assumed she was going to ask us for money,” Jones recalled. “She grabbed both my hands and told me her story, what she had been through and how it had affected her family. I told her how important it was to us to ensure that doesn’t happen again.
“And then she said the most amazing, most Texan thing to say,” he said. “She said, ‘I will pray for everyone in ERCOT,’ and then she disappeared back into the darkness. Being true to my promise to that woman is why I’m here.”
Jones followed that up with a second story dating back to a conservation alert last summer, when ERCOT asked its consumers to reduce their energy usage to compensate for a drop in wind production amidst thermal maintenance outages.
Speaking from the grid operator’s operations center in Taylor, where he keeps a cot in his office, Jones said a buddy happened to be in town during the conservation alert and visiting his Austin home. The friend called his girlfriend in San Antonio to see how she was doing.
“She blasted back, ‘I’ll be a lot better when that [expletive] at ERCOT lets me turn up my air conditioning,’” Jones said. “I understand that frustration and anger. I also applaud that she believes it was a responsibility that every Texan should take on, to help other Texans.”
Of course, it will take more than prayers and Texans’ conservation measures for ERCOT to comfortably meet demand during the current winter storm. Nor do staff see this week as a test; they see it as normal business, Jones said.
“After listening to [customers’] stories, it makes it so much easier to discuss with them the improvements we’re making and to build confidence in what we’re trying to achieve,” Jones said. “One afternoon or evening in Midland is not going to change the people of Midland and rebuild their trust, but it’s a place to start, right? I’ve told them that in order for us to rebuild their trust, it’s not operating one winter well or five winters well. It’s 100 winters well, but we have to start somewhere.”
So far, so good. The grid operator’s December inspections of power plants found nearly complete compliance with the state’s new winter readiness regulations. Staff reported almost 7 GW of generation outages Thursday afternoon, below what staff say is normally 10 to 12 GW.
The grid operator’s conservative approach to the grid has resulted in more than 9 GW of reserves Thursday afternoon, thanks partially to wind resources’ overperformance. Wind was accounting for about 27% of the grid’s production during the middle of the day Thursday.
“The grid remains strong, reliable, and it is performing well in this winter weather event,” Public Utility Commission Chair Peter Lake said during a Thursday press conference.
ERCOT is currently expecting demand to peak around 73.5 GW Friday morning, which would exceed last year’s record winter peak of 69.2 GW before the load sheds began. Experts and academics have concluded demand could have reached 77 GW or higher last year, had the grid operator not been forced to cut load and compensate for the loss of about 50 GW of generation.
Local customer outages reached 70,000 at one point Thursday but had dropped to almost 37,000 as nightfall approached, according to PowerOutage.us. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said 10,000 restoration crews are currently at work, with another 2,000 expecting from neighboring mutual assistance utilities.
Of more concern are natural gas supplies. As has been frequently noted, the state’s gas industry has not been required to winterize its facilities yet, something that is a year or two off. Bloomberg reported Thursday that 5% of the country’s gas production has been knocked offline by the freezing weather and that production declines will continue.
Jones has a plan there. Given the lack of transparency into the natural gas transportation system, he told the ERCOT Board of Directors last month that he wants to add a gas desk in the operations center to monitor gas availability or restrictions. (See ERCOT Preps for 2nd Cold Snap of Year.)
“That covers the biggest weakness we have,” Jones said, noting ISO-NE and NYISO already have similar desks. ERCOT first looked at the idea in 2015, but Jones thought it a wasted effort “because we’ll never get the information we need from the gas companies.”
However, with the new Texas Energy Reliability Council, power and gas representatives are in the same room for twice-weekly meetings, exchanging information and conversation.
“It’s really encouraging. I think we can fill that [information] gap,” Jones said.