MISO said it likely can take on fall with sufficient capacity and minimal operating challenges.

The grid operator issued a fall outlook last week, where it said it should have enough capacity to last the season. It anticipates having 119 GW in firm capacity to handle an expected 107-GW peak in September, 102 GW in October to cover an 89-GW peak and 106 GW in November for an 87-GW peak.

MISO said it should be able to operate squarely within its nonemergency resources through November. However, it said on the slim chance it experiences a confluence of load that could rise as high as 117 GW with unusually high generation outages, it could require all of its 10 GW in load-modifying resources on a September day. That’s the most serious possible scenario MISO foresees. The RTO first must issue a maximum generation emergency to access any of its load-modifying resources.

MISO’s record fall demand stands at 115 GW on Sept. 22, 2017.

On average, MISO experiences nearly 33 GW in generation outages over the fall; outages have hit almost 45 GW at certain times during past seasons.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is anticipating a warmer-than-normal autumn for MISO South and average precipitation across the MISO footprint.

MISO may have the worst of summer high temps behind it after it declared a maximum generation emergency to manage heat-driven load and forced generation outages Aug. 24. The grid operator ordered load-modifying resources for more than seven hours and escaped the heat wave without taking the most serious step of load shed. (See related story, MISO Calls 1st Summertime Emergency amid Systemwide Heat Wave.) By Thursday night, it had terminated its maximum generation warning, capacity advisory, conservative operations instructions and hot weather alert for the entire footprint. However, it issued a fresh alert early Friday for lingering heat in MISO South.