In keeping with its winter estimates from previous years, MISO said it could run into trouble in January should it experience high load or high outages.

In a winter outlook published last week, MISO said it should fare well over the season under typical demand and generation outages. However, the RTO said it may need to declare an emergency in January if a deep freeze spurs either unusual generation outages or elevated demand.

Otherwise, MISO said it should have sufficient firm resources to cover winter peak load forecasts.

The grid operator predicts a 96.4-GW peak in December under typical circumstances or 101.5 GW in a high-load scenario. It said it should have nearly 115 GW of firm resources to cover peak, though that could be downgraded to 110.7 if generation outages creep up.

MISO said its system most likely will realize a nearly 102-GW peak in January under typical demand or up to 107 GW in an amplified demand situation. It said it should have as much as 121.8 GW or as little as 100.7 GW of firm resources available in its fleet, all but guaranteeing the need for emergency procedures and resources.

System strain will ease in February, MISO said, with a 97.6-GW peak or a less likely 102.4-GW peak. In either case, the RTO said it should be able to handle demand without an emergency, having anywhere from 121.6 GW to 111 GW available in firm resources.

MISO anticipates it will have access to about 10 GW worth of load-modifying resources and other operating reserves this winter if it orders emergency procedures.

MISO declared one maximum generation event last winter during a Dec. 23 arctic blast, a product of high load and high generation outages. (See MISO Winter Recap Centers on December Emergency.)