SPP says it expects to have enough generation to meet demand this winter following an assessment that indicated an increase in operational certainty over the previous two assessments.
The grid operator’s staff told stakeholders Nov. 18 during its annual Winter Reliability Forecast and Emergency Communications webinar that they project a 98.5% probability of SPP having sufficient resources to meet the projected peak demand this winter season. That probability increases further when operating reserves are added to the mix.
Weather forecasts, peak demand projections, expected generation availability and other trends suggest the region will have a greater margin between electricity demand and generating capacity than in the previous two peak seasons, staff said.
“While this forecast presents a positive outlook for electricity customers throughout the SPP footprint, we must continue to be vigilant and plan for growing power demands in the future,” SPP COO Lanny Nickell said in a statement. “We can never say for sure when extreme weather events, such as what we have experienced in recent years, may materialize. SPP is doing everything it can to be prepared to meet customer needs.”
Winter storms in February 2021 and December 2022 stretched the footprint’s available reserves, forcing the RTO to shed load in 2021 and import power.
SPP has projected demand to peak at 46.92 GW in its 14-state footprint. It has a total winter capacity of 63.88 GW, resulting in about a 40% reserve margin. The capacity values do not include the effect of accreditation policies filed at FERC. The grid operator’s resource adequacy requirements for the winter season (December-March) are not effective until the 2024/25 winter season.
The La Niña weather pattern is forecast to return during the upcoming season, bringing with it the potential strong polar jet stream that led to the 2021 and 2022 winter storms. Temperatures are expected to be lower than normal in the northern plains and higher in the South.
SPP annually assesses historical and predicted future electricity use, weather forecasts, wind energy’s variability, drought conditions, and generation and transmission outages to identify and address threats to energy reliability during the winter.
