Rhode Island may meet its goal of using 100% renewable electricity by 2030, but that doesn’t mean the rest of New England can do the same.

So heard more than 150 people Thursday at a virtual public meeting on how the state’s Office of Energy Resources (OER) is working with the Brattle Group to develop a plan by year-end to achieve a 100% clean grid by the end of the decade.

“The two most significant barriers to accelerated renewable growth are the following: One is sustainability and affordability from a consumer perspective,” OER Commissioner Nicholas Ucci said. “The other major challenge is sustainable siting.”

The state, which had 95 MW of clean energy in 2016, has increased its share almost tenfold to 920 MW as of the first quarter of 2020, Ucci said.

The OER is conducting a study that should be released in December that looks at opportunities for solar development on greyfields and brownfields, landfills and carports, all to ease the burden of siting for developers, he said.

The state is also looking forward to the 400-MW Revolution Wind offshore wind project, which will supply 25% of its electricity when it goes online in a few years, Ucci said.

Nicole Verdi, deputy chief of staff to Gov. Gina Raimondo, referred to climate change as a threat to the very existence of the low-lying Ocean State.

“Rhode Island is warming at the fastest rate of any state in the continental U.S.,” Verdi said. “Our sea levels rise faster each year, and we are rapidly approaching the point of no return.”

If the status quo persists, sea levels could rise as much as 10 feet by the end of this century, she said.

“Let me paint a picture of how disastrous this could be. A 10-foot rise in our sea level would turn Little Compton, Portsmouth and Tiverton into a chain of small islands,” Verdi said. “A 5-foot rise would give the state house a moat.”

Decarbonize Everything

Raimondo signed an executive order in January committing the state to be powered by 100% renewable electricity by the end of the decade and directing the OER to conduct economic and energy market analyses in order to develop workable policies and programs.

“This is a very aggressive goal, more so than any other U.S. states have put in place,” said Brattle principal Dean Murphy in opening the day’s presentation. “Achieving 100% renewable electricity by 2030 is the focus of this study, but it’s important to keep in context that the 100-by-30 goal is really just one step toward the larger and longer-term economy-wide goal of 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.”

Brattle last month delivered a similar study to NYISO concluding that New York’s ambitious clean energy goal of having the first grid in the country to reach 100% emissions-free electricity will require an “astonishing” 80 GW of new generation by 2040. (See ‘Astonishing’ Buildout Needed for Clean NY Grid.)

Electrifying most heating uses and most transportation would roughly double the demand for electricity over the next few decades, “and of course, you haven’t decarbonized the heating or transportation sector unless you’ve also decarbonized electricity,” Murphy said. “That gives a sense of why decarbonizing electricity is important: first to get the carbon out of the existing electricity sector, and then to provide carbon-free generation to power other sectors as a way of decarbonizing those.”

Daniel Collins, director of government affairs at the New England Power Generators Association, asked whether the study will consider carbon pricing as a potential solution to meet the 2030 goal and beyond. “The executive order mentions leveraging market competition, which would presumably make carbon pricing a viable policy option,” he said in a written question. “I also note that OER is conducting a separate study on carbon pricing, albeit with a different consultant.”

“As you note, carbon pricing is being studied elsewhere,” Ucci responded. “However, OER will consider the lessons learned through both studies and integrate where appropriate. Indirectly, any future carbon pricing scheme could produce revenues that might ultimately be invested in new clean energy resources, e.g. local solar, energy efficiency, etc. That type of outcome, if it came to pass, would be consistent with our analytical framework here.”

Cadmus Group and Synapse Energy Economics delivered a preliminary assessment on their carbon pricing study for OER in May and expect to issue a proposed mechanism for carbon pricing by the end of this summer.

Encouraging Renewables

Murphy said the report’s “‘gap’ refers to the amount of additional renewables that you’d need by 2030 to meet 100%, additional beyond where we are now, beyond the commitments that have already been made. We are not identifying those mechanisms by which additional renewables could be procured or provided to get to 100%.”

National Grid, the state’s main utility, reported at a seminar last month on its decarbonization efforts. (See NE Utilities Lay out Strategies for Net-zero Emissions.)

The utility’s Renewable Energy Growth (REG) program supports the development of distributed generation projects with wind, solar, hydropower and anaerobic digestion — and has a separate program for homeowners and small business operators installing facilities 25 kW and smaller.

In addition, the state runs its own solar marketplace to help residents install solar panels on their property.

Rhode Island can lead New England by example, said Jürgen Weiss, another principal with Brattle.

“The climate leadership role could be making sure Rhode Island helps push down greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible to avoid the worst consequences of climate change,” Weiss said.

Another more narrow goal is to make sure that the policies that get implemented lead to the decarbonization of the power sector, which seems obvious, but there are factors that need to be considered to ensure the outcome, he said.

“Any policies implemented should lead to additional greenhouse gas emission reductions in the power sector — reductions that would not have occurred absent the policies,” Weiss said.

He said state policies may not result in additional GHG emissions reductions if compliance happens through an alternative compliance agreement, or “out clause.”

Theoretically, the trade of renewable energy credits and certificates could lead to emissions reductions in Texas, but not in Rhode Island, so policymakers should be aware of all the details, Weiss said.

Another policy consideration is to make sure that 100% of load is counted, “which is easier said than done, for not all demand for electricity in Rhode Island is metered, such as a diesel generator in the backyard that’s only used for emergencies,” Weiss said.

An industrial facility might have its own generator, the most typical example being a combined heat and power plant, so decarbonizing 100% means capturing all the elements, he said.

Especially after 2030, moving to electrify transportation, heating and cooling will not get the region to net-zero emissions unless the power sector continues to decarbonize, Weiss said.

A renewable energy standard “is a good starting point, but it’s not enough. … We need additional resources,” he said.