By Ted Caddell and Rich Heidorn Jr.
Having won Ohio regulators’ approval of their controversial power purchase agreements, American Electric Power and FirstEnergy now are hoping the PPAs will pass muster with FERC.
The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio on Thursday unanimously approved modified versions of two PPAs, which the companies said are crucial to keeping some of their underperforming plants running in the state (14-1297-EL-SSO and 14-1693-EL-RDR).
On Monday, AEP and FirstEnergy formally notified FERC of the approvals.
Competing merchant generators have asked FERC to revoke the waivers it granted AEP and FirstEnergy regarding affiliate power sales to ensure a Section 205 review of the above-market deals (EL16-33, EL16-34). (See PJM Joins EPSA’s Call for FERC Review of Ohio PPAs.)
In addition, 11 generating companies, including Calpine, Dynegy and NRG Energy, asked FERC on March 21 to expand PJM’s minimum offer price rule to prevent state subsidized plants from making below-cost offers that would suppress capacity prices (EL16-49). (See Generators to FERC: Expand MOPR for Subsidized FE, AEP Plants.)
The companies have asked FERC to rule before PJM’s next Base Residual Auction, which begins May 11.
Since PUCO’s ruling, seven organizations, including the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, the PJM Power Providers Group and CPV Power Holdings, have filed to intervene in the cases. On Monday, FERC denied AEP and FirstEnergy’s request for more time to respond to the MOPR filing, leaving the April 11 comment deadline intact.
Sale Likely?
Guggenheim Securities analyst Shahriar Pourreza said in a research note Thursday that he expects AEP to sell the remaining 5 GW of generation not covered by the PPAs, “a path for the company to move toward a fully regulated business profile.”
“We estimate the sale could generate $1.9 [billion to] $2.3 billion, which we expect to be redeployed into transmission to offset lost earnings,” Pourreza wrote.
For FirstEnergy, Pourreza said, the PPAs will strengthen its balance sheet without requiring the issuance of additional equity. “We see FE as a turnaround story with the PPAs approved,” he wrote.
The analyst said FERC is unlikely to change PJM’s MOPR “to apply specifically to AEP and FE’s plants.” The MOPR plaintiffs have asked FERC to order PJM to develop a long-term solution by Nov. 1.
PUCO’s approval appears to have had little effect on Wall Street. AEP has risen just 53 cents (0.8%) from Thursday’s open, closing Monday night at $66.58. FirstEnergy has dropped 37 cents (1%), closing at $35.68.
‘Rate Stability’
In approving the eight-year PPAs, Ohio regulators said they were striving for “rate stability” by building in safeguards intended to protect consumers, modifying the plans to limit bill increases. The commission also added provisions meant to “encourage” grid modernization and retail competition.
“The commission’s order strikes an appropriate balance between consumers’ interests in cost-effective electric service and diverse stakeholder interests,” Chairman Andre Porter said. “Today’s opinion and order affirms Ohio’s commitment to encourage a modernized grid and retail competition.”
Although the PPAs guarantee the generators receive revenue streams above current market prices, AEP and FirstEnergy contend the deals will save customers money if natural gas prices increase.
“The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio recognized the significant benefits of this plan for Ohio consumers. This plan will ensure more stable electricity prices in Ohio and promote the development of new, renewable generation to support the state’s economy,” AEP CEO Nick Akins said in a statement.
“Today’s decision will help protect our customers against rising electric prices and volatility in the years ahead, while helping to preserve vital baseload power plants that serve Ohio customers and provide thousands of family-sustaining jobs in the state,” FirstEnergy CEO Charles E. Jones said in a statement.
Opponents Denounce PUCO Ruling
Opponents of the plan were quick to respond to the decision.
“Today the PUCO failed more than 100,000 Ohioans who opposed the multi-billion dollar FirstEnergy and American Electric Power bailouts,” said Rachael Belz, executive director of Ohio Citizen Action. “Ohioans don’t want utilities raiding their pockets to prop up 18th-century technology in a 21st-century world.”
“The Alliance for Energy Choice is dismayed that the PUCO did not reject outright FirstEnergy’s and AEP’s demands to force consumers to pay unnecessary, additional electric charges of at least $6 billion over eight years,” the competitive energy supplier group said in a prepared statement.
“Anything short of rejection damages markets and competition,” tweeted former Pennsylvania PUC Commissioner John Hanger, now a private energy industry attorney. “Good for crony capitalism.”
Rate Freeze
The two utilities sought the long-term PPAs to provide guaranteed income for plants facing competition from cheaper gas-burning plants. Both companies had earlier reached settlements with PUCO’s staff and others, leading to Thursday’s rulings by the commission.
AEP’s plan calls for guaranteed income for the company’s 2,671-MW ownership share of nine plants, as well as a 423-MW contractual share of Ohio Valley Electric’s generating fleet, until May 2024.
FirstEnergy’s agreement provides similar guarantees for its 908-MW Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station, the 2.2-GW W.H. Sammis coal-fired plant and the company’s 105-MW share of Ohio Valley Electric’s generation.
In both cases, ratepayers would make the generating units whole if capacity and energy sales in the competitive market were not sufficiently profitable. While the companies testified that the market would eventually prove profitable for their plants, the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel said the plans left consumers open to excess costs that could top $8 billion over the life of the deals.
“FirstEnergy’s Ohio utilities expect to file new rates with the PUCO by May 2, following the completion of a competitive auction process to buy electric generation supply for their non-shopping customers,” FirstEnergy said in a press release. “FirstEnergy expects that the vast majority of its Ohio utility customers will see lower total bills after these auctions.”
But Todd Snitchler, former PUCO chairman and now with The Alliance for Energy Choice, said FirstEnergy’s claim of static or lower bills is disingenuous.
“It’s not out of the goodness of their hearts,” he scoffed. “It’s because that’s what the commission said.”
PUCO’s order freezes FirstEnergy’s base distribution rates during the PPA and ensures that average customer bills will not increase for the first two years.
PUCO’s order on AEP limits rate increases to 5% during the first two years of the PPA. The company also promised $100 million in rate credits to reduce increases during the final four years.
Both companies originally requested 15-year PPAs, but they scaled back those requests in the face of opposition from consumer advocates and other merchant generators. The companies worked behind the scenes to construct settlements with some of the opposition, adding environmental incentives and consumer protections in exchange for their approval.
AEP won over the Sierra Club with a promise to double the state’s wind generation and nearly quintuple its solar capacity — translating into 900 MW of new renewable energy.
Criticism from All Sides
Critics see the agreements as an attempt at re-regulation in a deregulated Ohio electricity market, coming after the generating companies were already provided stranded cost compensation to give up their monopolies. FirstEnergy, for instance, was compensated for $6.9 billion in stranded costs in 1999.
But the companies say that times have changed and that the PPAs are crucial for keeping the plants operating and Ohioans employed.
The companies’ proposals were immediately met with protests from environmentalists, ratepayer advocates and rival generators in PJM, with Dynegy and Talen Energy threatening litigation to block the agreements. (See Merchant Generators Lead Opposition to FirstEnergy-Ohio Settlement.)
Even Exelon, which is seeking a similar deal for its own nuclear stations in Illinois, came out against FirstEnergy, and upped the ante by offering its own offer to Ohio. It called on PUCO to reject the FirstEnergy plan as “grossly lopsided” and offered to supply the 3,000 MW covered in the PPA with its own generation, at a proposed $2 billion savings to Ohio consumers.