A report released in February by Aurora Energy Research has found that President Donald Trump’s executive orders have put 43 GW of East Coast offshore wind projects at risk of permitting delay. 

The report found most of the orders, issued on Trump’s first day back in office, would not have an immediate impact on the offshore wind industry, though it contains a summary of each, as well as of other actions by the president, and potential long-term impacts.  

Of more immediate concern to the industry is Trump’s halt on onshore and offshore wind power leasing and permitting, and his direction to agencies to review existing ones. (See Critics Slam Trump’s Freeze on New OSW Leases.) 

“Our biggest concern with the executive orders in particular is not necessarily in the long term, but the potential for permitting risks for the projects that are already under development or already have leases downstate,” said Julia Hoos, head of USA East for Aurora. 

The report examined the status of more than two dozen projects and compared their risk profiles under the moratorium. It ranked projects by development phase, with those under construction deemed the lowest risk. Projects that had approved construction and operations plans were deemed medium risk. Low- and medium-risk projects include 5.1 GW and 5.9 GW of nameplate capacity, respectively. 

Projects still going through the permitting process were deemed high risk. This is the bulk of the current projects both numerically and in capacity, with 32 GW at risk.  

“For projects that are more advanced, it would be pretty unprecedented for those projects to run into additional challenges,” Hoos said. “But the language of the executive order is so aggressive on revisiting the legitimacy of the leases and permitting that it’s not out of the question.” 

Hoos said the executive order had caused “real nervousness” for projects that are working on their permits because a full blockage now could lead to a cancellation. For projects not fully blocked, developer costs almost surely would escalate. 

Dan Shawhan, a fellow at Resources for the Future and adjunct assistant professor at Cornell University, said Aurora’s analysis “seemed reasonable” to him. 

“Based on comments Trump has made, it seems like he’s interested in stopping offshore wind for as long as you can,” Shawhan said.  

He advised developers and states trying to build offshore wind to “pick their battles to live to build another day. They should challenge the parts of this that they think they might be able to overturn or overcome by court challenge. They should take advantage of this time to prepare to build after the Trump administration.” 

New York Reliability Risks

The report includes a section on New York’s energy future, citing 7.5 GW of at-risk projects against a backdrop of downstate fossil fuel plant retirements. 

It found that delaying key offshore wind projects could push the state back toward combined cycle gas turbine plants downstate by causing increased energy prices and reliance on imports from PJM. The analysis assumes a “strong enforcement of the peaker rule,” meaning that old peaker plants would be retired. 

“Demand is expected to grow in the winter with more heating electrification,” Hoos said. “Assuming the state doesn’t allow for that generation to be replaced by gas, which feels very likely given the last several years of policy, then reliability downstate is dependent on bringing in batteries and bringing in new generation.” 

Hoos said offshore wind was the most feasible path for new generation to be brought online in downstate New York. Delaying those projects poses “real risk” to the region. 

Shawhan said New York could avoid falling back on gas and imports if they accelerated solar development or other onshore renewables, but unless the state acted, it likely would be forced to increase fossil generation. Transmission projects that support renewables also might see increased attention from the state. 

“Transmission development usually takes a long time, about a decade,” Shawhan said. “There are projects in development that might or might not be built, and this would tip the balance in favor of them being built.”  

“NYSERDA will carefully review federal actions regarding offshore wind development,” a spokesperson for the New York State Research and Development Authority said in an email. “It is too soon to determine what impact, if any, federal actions might have on New York reaching its ambitious renewable energy targets.”