Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced March 4 that the province will enact a retaliatory 25% tariff on its electricity exports to the U.S. — or even halt them — if President Donald Trump doesn’t stand down in a burgeoning trade war.
“Today, I am writing to every senator, every congressman and woman and the governors from New York state, Michigan and Minnesota, telling them that [if] these tariffs persist, if the Trump administration follows through on any more tariffs, we will immediately apply a 25% surcharge on the electricity we export,” Ford said from a podium emblazoned with “Canada is not for sale.”
“We will not hesitate to shut off their power as well,” Ford told reporters at the press conference.
According to a draft public notice of tariff rules posted March 3, a 25% tariff on nearly all goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy went into effect at 12:01 a.m. March 4.
Ford’s announcement was part of an unfolding Canadian response. He said it was a “tough day” for both the U.S. and Canada.
“Canada and Ontario did not start this fight. We want to work with our American friends and allies, not against them. We said we’d never start a trade and tariff war with the U.S. But you’d better believe we’re ready to win one,” he said.
Ford added that the U.S. leaders he has spoken to agree that Trump’s tariffs on Canada are a “massive mistake” that stand to hurt both countries. He said the two could have worked together to economically sustain one another.
“We have no choice. We have to respond … tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar,” he said. Ford said Canadians should be prepared for a long fight and escalations, including “surcharges or outright restrictions” on the critical minerals and electricity Canada supplies to the U.S. Ford said Ontario’s tariffs would be used to help the workers affected.
Canadian power exports to the U.S. fluctuate year to year, though the U.S. is consistently a net importer of power. In 2023, the U.S. took in 15 TWh compared to 42 TWh in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The decline was brought on by an ongoing drought affecting Canadian hydropower and lower natural gas prices in the U.S.
Ontario exports power through New York, Michigan and Minnesota. The province powers about 1.5 million homes across those states.
During a separate and routine press conference March 4, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said she does not think her state has a “target on our backs from Canada.”
“Fortunately for our state, I’m good at developing positive relationships with our allies, not embarrassing them,” Hochul said. She said the western part of the state and Canada share an “incredible synergy” and that she had previous assurances from Ford that he would not harm the state.
“Now, whether that means he can help the flow of energy that we’re already counting on to keep coming here … I’m happy to have additional conversations with him on how we can support each other during this crisis,” she said.
In response to RTO Insider, MISO said it had more to do to understand how the U.S.’ tariffs work and did not address the prospect of Ontario’s retaliation. The MISO footprint includes Michigan and Minnesota.
“This is a fluid situation, and it is unclear whether the U.S. import tariffs apply to imports of electricity from Canada, and it is uncertain whether or when this will be resolved. MISO has received no confirmation from federal agencies regarding the duties’ applicability to electricity or who will be responsible for paying or collecting them,” spokesperson Brandon Morris told RTO Insider.
However, MISO noted that less than 1% of its total energy in 2024 was supplied via Canadian imports, with less than half of that hailing from Ontario.
“For context, that amount is equivalent to approximately one power plant. MISO manages the loss of power plants like this every day to ensure reliability across our footprint,” Morris said.
Stacey LaRouche, press secretary for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, said the governor and her team are monitoring the situation. Whitmer has previously warned that tariffs would put jobs on both sides of the border at risk and stand to further slow supply chains and raise consumer costs.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz called the tariff back-and-forth “totally avoidable.”
“And if I had some advice on this one: President Trump can just claim victory. We’ll create an award here and award it [to] him that he won the trade war. Good for you,” Walz said during a March 4 press conference before the agricultural community of Cannon Falls, Minn. “But let us get back to the work of real economics; the growing of food; making sure that we’re innovating for the future.”
Ford said he was encouraging his fellow premiers to follow suit with reciprocal surcharges. If any make similar announcements, ISO-NE could be included in Canada’s counteroffensive.
“New England’s power system is connected to Quebec and New Brunswick, not Ontario, and the region’s grid is operating reliably today,” ISO-NE said in an email to RTO Insider.
Vincent Gabrielle and Jon Lamson contributed to this report.
