ALBANY, N.Y. — Another mass cancellation is potentially in the works for New York’s contracted renewable energy pipeline.

This one would not be as large as the infamous collapse in late 2023, which exceeded 8 GW, but would follow the same pattern: Renewable energy certificate (REC) contracts signed years ago not containing cost adjustment mechanisms and the state refusing to consider adding them after construction costs have soared.

Marguerite Wells, executive director of the advocacy and trade group Alliance for Clean Energy New York, said the projects at risk total roughly 3 GW of nameplate capacity.

Wells led a panel discussion April 15 at the New York Energy Summit focusing on the causes of this latest setback for New York renewables — inflation, tariffs and vanishing federal tax credits — rather than on the situation itself. (See related story, N.Y. Energy Summit Examines State of Renewables.)

Afterward, she told RTO Insider that while the state’s position is understandable, it does not make project economics work.

“That was the same problem that the earlier cohort, the big 90-project termination in 2023 had, because the contract is exactly fixed and flat and has no adjustability,” Wells said.

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), which manages the REC process, had recommended in mid-2023 that the Public Service Commission (PSC) grant developers’ request for more money, but the PSC refused, triggering the mass exodus and a rush effort from NYSERDA to negotiate new contracts. (See Sweeping Reset Underway for NY Renewable Development.)

Asked for comment, NYSERDA indicated there would be no renegotiation of existing contracts in 2026, either.

“NYSERDA expects developers that have already signed contracts with New York State to honor their commitments,” a spokesperson told RTO Insider. “The competitive bidding process is designed to protect consumers and result in fair and cost-effective contracts, ensuring developers are not able to offload risk onto New York ratepayers. NYSERDA intends to continue to protect ratepayers by holding contractors to the terms they agreed to.”

But the economics of those contracts simply do not work in mid-2026, Wells said. The 3 GW is her best estimate of the capacity that could be lost as a result, a significant amount for a state far behind on its renewable energy goals.

“That is my math based on conversations with all of my members on the projects that have contracts and that are mature enough to actually go dig holes if they had a contract that held water,” she said.

The next step is unclear.

Wells does not know if NYSERDA will allow developers that cancel contracts to rebid the same projects into the upcoming 2026 large-scale renewables solicitation. It did after the 2023 exodus but did not allow it in the 2025 solicitation, she said.

Moving forward, there should be fewer of these wholesale collapses, Wells said.

“I think people across the state, no matter where they sit, are frustrated that renewables haven’t been built as fast as we all would wish,” she said.

But NYSERDA has revised its approach substantially, she added.

“Starting in the 2025 RFP, they put the [price] flexibility in there that we’d been asking for for years. And so I think this batch of three years of projects should be the end of this frustrating line of terminations.”

NYSERDA is in the process of contracting the 2025 solicitation and will announce results when it is completed.