November 22, 2024
Report Marks a Decade of Energy Transition
BloombergNEF’s energy trends report looks back over the decade, in which "the U.S. fundamentally overhauled how it produces, delivers and consumes" energy.

BloombergNEF’s annual Sustainable Energy in America Factbook is a smorgasbord of data that energy policy nerds have hungrily consumed since the company started publishing it eight years ago.

For its 2020 edition, released last week, BNEF combined last year’s data with a look back over the last decade, “10 extraordinary years [in which] the U.S. fundamentally overhauled how it produces, delivers and consumes hydrocarbons, electrons and heat.”

Here’s some of the highlights of the report, which BNEF produced with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE).

Energy transition
U.S. electricity generation by fuel type | BloombergNEF

Natural Gas & Coal

Domestic natural gas production rose more than 50% during the decade and 8% in 2019, pushing the U.S. from a net importer to a net exporter. The gas distribution pipeline network grew from 2.09 million miles in 2009 to 2.24 million through 2018 (the last year for which there is complete data).

Gas prices dropped to 2016 levels last year, with Henry Hub natural gas trading below $3/MMBtu every month except January.

Power sector demand for natural gas rose 60% as gas-fired generation’s share jumped from 24% to 38% over the decade. Coal’s share declined by almost half, from 45% to 23%. About 12 GW of coal-fired generation shuttered in 2019 and another 14 GW of retirements have been announced for the next three years.

Renewables & Storage

Generation from renewables spiked 77% during the decade, fed by new utility-scale wind and solar projects and rooftop solar. Renewable capacity doubled over the same period, with installed wind tripling to 108 GW and solar increasing 80-fold to 75 GW. The U.S. is second only to China in renewable capacity.

Last year was the second biggest ever for new non-hydro renewable energy capacity, with 20 GW commissioned, most of it wind and solar. Wind generation rose to 302 TWh in 2019 from 273 TWh the year before, surpassing hydro generation, which dropped from 293 TWh to 276 TWh. Renewables powered 18% of electric consumption in 2019.

U.S. electric generating capacity build by fuel type | BloombergNEF

“In a potential harbinger, U.S. hydro, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and waste-to-energy produced more than the country’s fleet of coal-fired power facilities in April 2019,” surpassing coal for the first time, BNEF said.

Corporations — including oil companies looking to reduce extraction-related emissions — signed a record 14 GW of bilateral renewable energy power purchase agreements last year.

In the last two years, projects that pair renewable technologies with large-scale batteries have become economically viable. (See related story, Energy Storage: All Grown Up?)

From 2010 through 2018 (the last year for which complete data are available), investor-owned utilities invested an average of $18.9 billion a year (2018 dollars) in transmission, nearly double their inflation-adjusted spending for the previous decade. Renewable developers, however, say they need far more transmission to move power to load centers from wind- and solar-rich regions.

Efficiency, Economy, Emissions

U.S. energy demand increased little over the decade despite 10 consecutive years of economic growth since 2009. While U.S. gross domestic product rose 25%, total energy use was up only 6.6%.

In 2019, energy productivity — the ratio of GDP growth vs. energy consumption growth — rose 3.3% as GDP grew by 2.3%, while energy consumption declined 1%.

Lower energy costs have contributed to low inflation, with U.S. households now spending less than 4% of their average monthly income on energy spending, down from 5.1% 10 years ago.

Meanwhile, as of 2018, 3.5 million people were working in the energy efficiency, energy storage, renewables, nuclear and natural gas industries.

Greenhouse gas emissions from power plants dropped by nearly 25% for the decade, making the sector the second largest emitter, behind transportation. Less extreme weather contributed to a 2.8% drop in power consumption in 2019. “Lower top-line demand coupled with the general move toward a cleaner power matrix caused power sector-related emissions to crater by a rather incredible 7.8%,” BNEF said.

Energy transition
Jobs in electricity generation | BloombergNEF

However, it said climate change is causing higher high and lower low temperatures, increasing air conditioning and heating demand. “If these trends persist, increased energy consumption can make efforts to reduce energy sector emissions more difficult,” it said.

Transportation sector emissions rose 5% during the decade despite the growth in electric vehicles. U.S. consumers now have a choice of 44 pure battery electric models and 35 plug-in hybrid electrics. EV sales totaled 1.4 million for the decade but dropped 11% in 2019 versus 2018. EVs represented only 1.8% of U.S. vehicle sales for the year. (See related story, Spotty EV Growth, TOU Enrollment Challenges States.)

Nine states increased their renewable portfolio standards in 2019, and states such as Washington, Nevada and New Mexico set zero-carbon, energy efficiency and fuel efficiency targets.

– Rich Heidorn Jr.

Environmental RegulationsGeneration

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