The Democrats’ victory in Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff elections Jan. 6 means President-elect Joe Biden will have an easier time winning confirmation for his cabinet nominees and could open the door to some form of climate legislation.
The victories by Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock leave the Senate split 50-50, with incoming Vice President Kamala Harris able to break the tie. But unless the Democrats decide to eliminate the filibuster, they will need to win support of at least 10 Republicans to pass most legislation.
During the campaign, Biden proposed a $2 trillion plan to eliminate power sector carbon emissions by 2035 and make the U.S. the leader in electric vehicle production. (See Biden Offers $2 Trillion Climate Plan.)
Biden has not endorsed calls to end the filibuster. But in a note to clients Wednesday, ClearView Energy Partners suggested efforts by some congressional Republicans to contest the presidential election results might prompt Democrats who have opposed elimination of the filibuster, such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), to reconsider their position.
“A post-filibuster Senate might not give Democrats party-line powers to enact a carbon tax or a sweeping climate law. But a filibuster-free Senate might still be able to enact transition-accelerating stimulus spending on renewables and electric vehicles with a price tag in the triple-digit billions (or maybe even single-digit trillions) of dollars. A national Clean Energy Standard might prove viable, too.”
The Democrats’ flip of the Senate “will translate into a bold centrist clean energy agenda focused on economic recovery and job creation,” Third Way’s Climate and Energy Program said. “Moving on this agenda is something, for example, that not only Sens. Manchin, [Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.)], but also Sens. [Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Jeff] Merkley (D-Ore.) can take back to their constituents and demonstrate real progress, particularly on climate change and recovery from the COVID-19 recession.”
One thing for certain — assuming the preliminary vote counts in Georgia are confirmed — is that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will not be able to block or slow-walk confirmation hearings on Biden’s nominees, including Rep. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.) as Interior secretary; former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm as Energy secretary; Michael Regan, EPA administrator; Janet Yellen, secretary of the Treasury; and Neera Tanden, director of the Office of Management and Budget.
Role for FERC
There are also implications for FERC, which could remain controlled 3-2 by Republicans until Commissioner Neil Chatterjee’s term expires.
“The decisive FERC seat that will shift [the commission] from majority R to D will be open no later than July 1,” Ari Peskoe, director of the Electricity Law Initiative at the Harvard Law School Environmental and Energy Law Program, tweeted after the Georgia races were called. “Presumably, the nominee will be not be held up by the Senate majority leader, as I had anticipated.”
FERC will have a central role in implementing Biden’s energy agenda, whether or not Congress passes a clean energy standard (CES) such as he’s proposed, Peskoe said. In a paper published in November, Peskoe called for FERC transmission and market policies that support wind and solar power.
Although a CES would not direct FERC to take action, “Congress’s policy choice should lead FERC to ensure that its regulation is compatible with the national mandate,” he wrote. “If Congress passes a CES, FERC may be more likely to go further [than its proposed policy statement on carbon pricing] and declare that existing energy market rules are unjust and unreasonable because they do not include a carbon price.” (See Wide Support for FERC Carbon Pricing Statement.)
A CES would also increase demand for transmission, he said. “Under the current regime, utilities participating in a regional planning process face different renewable energy obligations or none at all. Utilities that do not need or want renewable energy may be reluctant to plan and pay for transmission expansions designed to facilitate new wind and solar. A federal requirement, such as the 100% clean energy by 2035 mandate that Biden proposed during the campaign, might eliminate or at least reduce the impact of such disparities among utilities and make it more likely that regional planners could reach consensus among their utility members on projects designed to unlock clean energy resources.”
Peskoe predicted a Democratic FERC majority will likely consider changes to the PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO capacity markets to eliminate barriers to renewables such as the minimum offer price rule. But he noted, “There is no consensus on what new state procurement program or RTO market design should replace or supplement FERC’s capacity market rules.”
‘High Hurdle’
The Democrats’ narrow Senate edge also means Manchin will assume chairmanship of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
“I think a Marshall Plan-like Clean Energy Plan for rural America is a must to maintain broad support — 50 votes — politically smart and allows Joe Manchin to deliver a win for West Virginia,” tweeted David Littell, senior adviser to the Regulatory Assistance Project and a former member of the Maine Public Utilities Commission.
Even without the Senate victory, Biden was expected to use his executive powers to reverse many of President Trump’s environmental policies. ClearView Energy said that reversing proposed rules that are not yet final, such as the revised 2008 ozone federal implementation plans, will likely be easy to accomplish. In contrast, undoing Trump’s replacement of the Obama Clean Power Plan with the Affordable Clean Energy Rule will be a relatively “high hurdle” because the matter is already under judicial review, ClearView said.
