By Amanda Durish Cook
CARMEL, Ind. — History repeated itself during this month’s extreme cold snap — but only to a degree, MISO told stakeholders last week.
While the high load and generation outages during the arctic blast followed the pattern of 2014’s so-called “polar vortex,” this time the RTO managed to keep prices stable and maintain better reliability.
Tim Aliff, MISO director of system operations, said the RTO dubbed the weather event with a simple nickname.
“The best we could come up with was ‘cold snap,’” Aliff joked at Thursday’s Market Subcommittee meeting. “It doesn’t inspire the terror that ‘bombogenesis’ does, and ‘polar vortex’ was already taken.”
Aliff said that while there were major similarities between the polar vortex and last week’s artic conditions, MISO’s response to the demand and ensuing prices were very different, ensuring the RTO’s conservative operations declaration did not escalate to a maximum generation alert.
The recent low temperatures persisted longer and were on average lower than during the polar vortex, although the coldest day during 2014’s events was about 2 degrees Fahrenheit lower than this month’s. Demand peaked at 104.7 GW on Jan. 2, when low temperatures in the footprint averaged 0 F. During the polar vortex, MISO load hit an all-time winter peak of 109.3 GW on Jan. 6, 2014, when lows averaged minus 2 degrees.
Load topped 100 GW on five days during the recent cold snap, compared with two days during the polar vortex.
“We were on average about 10 degrees colder than in 2014,” Aliff said.
This year’s arctic blast was tempered in part by wind’s 13% contribution to the resource mix, supplying 13.4 GW during the Jan. 2 peak hour. In 2014, wind supplied 6.6 GW during the peak.
“The highest locational marginal price was significantly lower than in 2014,” Aliff said. Real-time LMPs hit $281.23/MWh during the peak, compared with the $1,780.70 record price seen in 2014. During the bitter cold on Jan. 1 and 2, gas prices held to $4.63/MMBtu, jumping to $9 a day later when temperatures increased by 13 degrees. In 2014, gas prices ranged between $5.88 and $7 during three straight days of punishing cold.
Outage levels on the most frigid day remained at levels typical for the month of January, Aliff said, accounting for about 36 GW of unavailable generation during the peak, including more than 19 GW of forced outages. Natural gas forced outages, mostly attributable to fuel transportation and supply issues, accounted for almost 7 GW of unavailable generation, while equipment failure in coal generation accounted for slightly more than 2 GW of forced outages.
“That is kind of expected at this time of year. The utility gas supply is competing with the residential gas supply,” Aliff explained. MISO was better prepared for outages this year and was equipped with a more accurate list of gas-fired generators most likely to be affected by a dwindling gas supply.
“We had a better picture of what the generation limitations would be,” he said.
Ameren’s Jeff Moore asked if greater wind production helped MISO fare better during the cold snap.
“I think that there’s a lot that went into the lower LMPs,” Aliff replied. Other improvements made since the polar vortex, especially gas-electric coordination, helped MISO’s performance, he added.
MISO staff at the meeting promised to provide more outage analysis and data collection on the event.
Stakeholders: More Real-Time Communication
Multiple stakeholders asked MISO to consider issuing more immediate updates to members as it navigates challenging conditions.
ITC Holdings’ Ray Kershaw led the charge, asking that MISO distribute more real-time electronic communication to its members when faced with near-emergency or emergency conditions.
Market Subcommittee Vice Chair Megan Wisersky said there was a marked difference between MISO’s sparse communication and PJM’s frequent email updates to its members on the state of its system during the cold snap. “It seemed like there was a little bit of an information gap between the two approaches,” she said.
“It’d be nice to know what the capacity breakdown is,” said Customized Energy Solutions’ David Sapper.
Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission staffer Dave Johnston pointed out that, sometimes, “no news is good news.” He noted that MISO does alert state regulators when reliability issues arise. “But, of course, I’m not a market participant, and I’m not watching prices,” Johnston said.
MISO Senior Director of Systemwide Operations Rob Benbow said the RTO would consider the request and determine what information it could release in real time. “We understand the importance of good communication,” he said.
“Good markets are run with better information,” Wiskersky said.
November Sees Boost in Load, Prices, Wind
MISO released a November market report showing that lower temperatures that month boosted average load to 71.6 GW, up 3.6 GW from a year earlier, while the monthly peak jumped by 2.5 GW to 84 GW. Real-time and day-ahead energy prices both averaged about $27.30/MWh, 10% higher than last November. MISO reported an all-time wind record of 14.6 GW on Nov. 21, only to be exceeded by a new high of 14.7 GW on Dec. 5.
