By Amanda Durish Cook

MILWAUKEE — Middle America could significantly decarbonize over the next three decades, but today’s actions and investment decisions and future public policy will be critical to meeting that goal, says a new report by a diverse group of regional energy experts.

The report by the Midcontinent Power Sector Collaborative (MPSC) says the midcontinent electricity sector could “substantially decarbonize by midcentury,” possibly reducing CO₂ emissions by 80 to 95% from 2005 levels using existing technology. Entitled “A Road Map to Better Energy,” the analysis was released at a July 24 conference hosted by the Great Plains Institute and the MPSC, a group of regulated utilities, generation and transmission cooperatives, merchant power providers, environmental organizations, and regulatory agencies.

“That’s a really, really critical finding,” Jeff Deyette of the Union of Concerned Scientists said of the carbon reduction potential. “We should be saying that loud and a lot, especially to those that are” doubters.

Great Plains Institute CEO Rolf Nordstrom praised the group for tackling such a contentious subject. He said the roadmap is especially important considering the diverse interests of the group’s members.

“The truth is the world is lousy with roadmaps. Who put this one together is important,” he said. “In today’s environment, where the public discourse can be so fractured and groups can talk past one another … it seems all the more important to note that — it’s in the name — this group is so collaborative,” Nordstrom said.

In the study scenarios in which carbon emissions fall to either 80% or 95% below 2005 levels, the midcontinent region would shift further from coal-fired generation, with no new coal capacity built even when considering carbon capture technology.

In a 95% reduction scenario with low natural gas prices and moderate renewable prices, the 2050 resource mix becomes nearly all wind generation and natural gas with carbon capture technology. With low renewable costs and moderate gas prices, wind dominates with slightly more solar participation. Nuclear generation remains largely static in both cases.

“The key finding is the region can do this,” said Franz Litz of the Great Plains Institute, adding that in California, solar and wind don’t complement each other well, whereas in the midcontinent, the two renewable resources have a more symbiotic relationship.

In a business-as-usual study model that included combinations of either moderate gas prices/low renewable costs or low gas prices/moderate renewable costs, the MPSC found that carbon emissions drop from about 500 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMT CO₂) in 2016 to slightly less than 300 MMT CO₂ by 2050.

MISO’s current generation mix consists of 77% natural gas and coal, with 18% non-emitting resources.

Policies?

The group said that despite regulatory uncertainty and the demise of the Clean Power Plan, it expects “substantial decarbonization will ultimately be required of the sector.”

Deyette said polices are needed to accelerate the transition: “We’re just not going to get there on the current voluntary choices of the utilities,” he said.

Consultant Judi Greenwald, who once served as an adviser on climate change to Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, pointed out that even today’s natural gas boom was nudged along beginning in the 1970s with generous government subsidies that encouraged research and development into extraction.

“It may look like market forces, but it has its roots in a mix of technology exploration and public policy,” Greenwald said.

The Lost Study

Greenwald pointed out that the U.S. itself released a study on decarbonizing by 2050 in November 2016 as a component of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

“Maybe you missed it — there was a lot going on that month,” Greenwald joked.

The paper, “United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization,” is no longer available on the White House website, but a version can be found on the U.N. website. It charts a threefold strategy for decarbonization: transforming the energy system, sequestering carbon and reducing non-CO₂ emissions to bring net emissions from under 7 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂E) in 2005 to about 1 gigaton CO₂E by 2050.

“Its status is somewhat indeterminate,” Greenwald said of the strategy paper.

Nordstrom encouraged attendees to think about what other countries are doing, especially China, which produced 60% of the world’s solar panels in 2017 and is currently leading the world in electric bus adoption.

“This is our time to determine where the puck is going to be, to use a tired, tired sports metaphor,” Nordstrom said.

‘Long-Lived Choices’

MPSC members say time is of the essence to get to a mostly decarbonized electricity sector in three decades.

“2050 is 32 years away. Some think that’s a long time, others not so much,” Greenwald said. She pointed out that even building appliances last about 10-20 years, while cars stay on the road 15-20 years. Investments being made now will determine the pace of decarbonization, she said. “You want to affect these investments now if you want to get going.

“Deep decarbonization of the U.S. economy is a challenge, but it’s doable,” Greenwald said. “It’s up to us. The emissions that we will have in the next several decades are up to us.”

“The choices that we make today are long-lived choices,” agreed Litz.

Miles Keogh, executive director of the National Association of Clean Air Agencies, said the plan to 2050 should be viewed through a backwards timeline. “Alright, it’s as if we’re getting married by 2050, and we have to have all this new generation built by then; we have to count backwards to see when we have to start constructing,” he said.

Keogh warned that 2050 is fast approaching and steps must be taken now if deep decarbonization is the goal.

“I think we have the money; I don’t think we have time,” he said, warning that as more time goes by without meaningful work, “the more unlikeable, strident and vigorous the driver has to be.” Keogh said the most universally disliked drivers tend to be policies. He pointed out that of the state regulators in MISO, only three — Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois — did not sue the federal government over the Clean Power Plan.

Keogh also said the immediate future holds little to no chance of any sweeping federal policies.

“The movement toward decarbonization is now not a federal matter; it’s a state and local matter,” he said. “We’re going to have this president until 2020, 2024 maybe. So legislation on the federal level is not going to be an immediate, immediate driver,” Keogh said.

Greenwald said she’s often asked if she’s an optimist or a pessimist regarding the goal of deep decarbonization. On that, she quoted physicist and clean energy pioneer Amory Lovins: “I am neither — because they are just two different forms of fatalism. I believe in applied hope. Things can get better, but you have to make them so.”

Greenwald added there’s no one silver bullet for decarbonization, “just a lot of buckshot,” meaning a variety of strategies.

Utilities Preparing

Xcel Energy’s Nicholas Martin said his company has moved beyond meeting renewable portfolio standards. He also said natural gas generation plays only a “supporting role” in its fleet.

“For many utilities, it’s been a transition from coal to gas. For us, it’s been a transition from coal to largely renewables,” he said. Xcel has pledged an 80% carbon-free energy fleet by 2030 in the upper Midwest and 60% in the rest of its service territory by the early 2030s.

“I can see us going beyond that,” Martin added.

DTE Energy’s Greg Ryan said his company plans for at least an 80% reduction in emissions levels from 2005 by 2050.

“The Clean Power Plan was going to be not too heavy of a lift,” Ryan admitted. “Especially after the 2016 election, we believed this is something we can lead the way on.”

The Regulator Perspective

Minnesota Public Utilities Commission Chair Nancy Lange said utilities should keep customers content so they stay on the grid and don’t exit for community aggregation programs that could disrupt the utility structure.

“To me, there’s a continuum of cost on one side and carbon on the other side, and reasonable people should care about both,” said Arkansas Public Service Commission Chair Ted Thomas, who also chairs the Organization of MISO States. “Look at my state; we’re on the cost side of the continuum, no doubt.”

Lange said regulators must reflect often on whether their decisions stifle innovation.

“I know … we’ll probably have gas plant proposals in front of us. That risk about climate is going to ripen, especially in Minnesota’s case,” she said, referring to Minnesota Power’s contested plan to partner with Dairyland Power Cooperative on a new 550-MW natural gas plant on the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Opponents of the proposed plant say it could compromise the state’s ability to meet its own emission-reduction targets.