By Amanda Durish Cook
CARMEL, Ind. — MISO has sufficient resources available to once again cope with unseasonably warm conditions this fall, although there is a small risk it may be forced to order emergency procedures.
The RTO foresees a 19% chance that it will invoke emergency operating procedures to call on load-modifying resources (LMRs) this fall, stakeholders learned at a Sept. 13 Market Subcommittee meeting. Those resources are not obligated to respond when called upon after Sept. 1. MISO expects to have about 11.8 GW of available LMRs, based on availability forecasts provided by resource owners.
MISO forecasts anywhere from a 110- to 120-GW peak load for September and said it prepared for loads more in line with summer conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts above-normal fall temperatures for the MISO region.
“September generally aligns more closely with summer system conditions, at least for the last few years,” said Jeanna Furnish, MISO manager of outage coordination.
Furnish said the RTO has so far this month experienced loads topping out at 114 GW, within about 1 GW of peak fall loads over the last three years.
For the last four years, MISO’s actual fall peak load has trended about 5 to 9 GW higher than load-serving entities have forecasted in 50/50 probability forecasts.
Furnish said MISO expects a 10- to 15-GW increase in planned outages from the end of September to the end of October, when load is projected to be lower. Navigating the outages will be “challenging, but manageable,” similar to the RTO’s experience in recent years.
After some stakeholders expressed confusion over the 19% statistic, MISO Executive Director of Market Development Jeff Bladen clarified that the RTO is not saying it will spend 20% of the fall in emergency operating procedures.
“There’s a 20% chance that we will go into emergency operating procedures at least once this fall,” he explained.
Some stakeholders wondered if MISO’s prediction was optimistic. Minnesota Public Utilities Commission staff member Hwikwon Ham pointed out NOAA predictions of a 40 to 60% chance of a major storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico last week. During the meeting, stakeholders also received an emailed capacity advisory notice for a possible shortage on Sept. 17 owing to outages and residual weather conditions from Hurricane Florence. MISO rolled out the new notification system in August for situations when its all-in capacity is forecast to be less than 5% above operating needs. (See “New Notification System,” MISO Moving to Combat Shifting Resource Availability.)
