By Amanda Durish Cook

CARMEL, Ind. — MISO is preparing for emergency conditions this winter despite projecting 40 GW of excess capacity to meet the forecasted peak in January.

“MISO does have adequate resources for the upcoming winter under normal operating conditions,” Executive Director of Energy Operations Rob Benbow told stakeholders during an Oct. 22 winter readiness workshop.

The RTO says it has 143 GW in total available capacity to meet demand. It anticipates a comfortable 37% systemwide reserve margin this winter, more than double the 17% target.

Its latest winter peak forecast is 104 GW, 5 GW below the all-time winter record set Jan. 6, 2014, during the polar vortex. Peak and capacity predictions are similar to last year’s forecasts. (See MISO Foresees Manageable 2018/19 Winter.)

Relying on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the RTO expects slightly warmer than normal conditions in MISO South and “pockets” of the MISO Central region, Resource Adequacy Coordination Engineer Eric Rodriguez said.

Possibly Hazardous January

But the generous supply only applies if everything goes smoothly, and MISO executives warned that the RTO could once again call wintertime emergencies. Benbow said MISO runs the risk of entering emergency procedures if temperatures dive and outages soar. The risk is most pronounced in January, where a worst-case scenario shows the RTO burning through all its 12.3 GW of load-modifying resources (LMRs) and operating reserves and still coming up almost 9 GW short.

Even in a probable generation scenario with normal load levels, MISO might still have to make an emergency declaration to call up LMRs. The RTO also said it could experience almost 6 GW of stranded capacity this winter.

Benbow said the risk is “not surprising considering the last two Januarys.”

“A combination of both high load and high outages would present challenges in reliably operating through the upcoming winter,” MISO said.

Increasing forced outage rates have been a “major driver” for emergency declarations in recent winters, the RTO said. MISO experienced about 45 GW worth of outages during the January 2019 maximum generation event and about 40 GW during its January 2018 event. (See MISO Details ‘Uncertainty’ Behind Winter Max Gen Event.)

MISO also reported that Midwest natural gas storage levels are at or above the five-year average because of amplified production.

The transmission system is also in relatively good shape to handle winter loads, staff reported. Engineer Benny Relucio said that MISO found no transmission constraints that don’t already have mitigation plans in place. In a thermal transfer analysis, MISO found two areas of concern: the Dumont-to-Wilton Center east-to-west transfer in northwest Illinois, and the Midwest-to-South transfer in either direction. MISO said it could be in violation of the lines’ transfer limits if certain nearby lines go down.

Cold Weather Prep

MISO Senior Adviser Eli Massey also said many generation owners have reported erecting temporary or permanent structures around “cold-weather-susceptible components” and have either improved existing — or added new — heat-tracing capabilities at plants.

But Massey said data from MISO’s annual winterization survey shows “a tipping point” when temperatures drop below -20 degrees F. At such subfreezing temps, all resource types are susceptible to shortages.

ReliabilityFirst engineer Tim Fryfogle, tapped by MISO to give a winter preparedness presentation, shared best practices with stakeholders. Among the most important steps generation owners can take are erecting wind barriers or enclosures and installing heaters to protect certain components, he said. “Keeping wind, snow and cold out of critical components is crucial.”

Fryfogle recommended remote monitoring from the control room of transmitter enclosures and more frequent operator rounds once the temperature dips to a certain point. He also suggested staff meetings to discuss lessons learned from past winters and comprehensive, pre-winterization walk-throughs of entire facilities, as well as assigning “dedicated individuals to monitor critical areas.”

2019 Improvements

Wintertime talk included a look-back at the historic extreme cold that gripped the Upper Midwest last year as January turned to February and the early 2018 arctic blast that nearly sent parts of MISO South into load-shed.

MISO Director of Central Region Operations Ron Arness said the RTO has learned from its past two years of weathering cold snaps. “We did see a need to update our wind forecasting,” he told stakeholders.

Arness said MISO has now added cold-weather cutoffs for wind generation in its forecasting, and it accounts for some voluntary facility closings when temperatures are extremely low. “We’re trying to be more proactive when we forecast events.”

MISO has also been working with its generator operators to make sure expectations are clear for capacity warnings and how to best handle making a public appeal for energy conservation.

“Not too long ago we didn’t have to worry about generation capacity. Now we do,” Arness said.

The RTO so far has termed its short-term resource availability and need fixes a success, reporting that stricter generation outage rules, better LMR availability reporting and annual real power testing for demand response have resulted in 5 to 10 GW of additional availability during times of need.

For the upcoming winter, MISO said it expects to have about 9.5 GW worth of increased availability and that response times should be shorter when it calls on LMRs. This is the first winter in which LMRs will be required to respond to emergencies outside the summer months.

More Winter Procedures to Come?

MISO used the workshop to provide an initial reaction to FERC’s recent recommendation that RTOs adopt a multifaceted cold weather reliability standard. (See FERC Calls for Cold Weather Reliability Standard.)

The RTO said it has so far completed a “preliminary evaluation” of the recommendation and concluded it already follows more than half of the practices FERC advised. Director of Seams Coordination Jeremiah Doner said the RTO believes it already complies with some recommendations on emergency drills, improved reserve deliverability and information sharing with neighbors on expected flows on the regional dispatch limit.

But Doner promised more work and communication with its neighbors on how to best coordinate use of its Midwest-South regional transfer limit with SPP after some stakeholders have criticized MISO for using an overly conservative summer line rating for the constraint in the middle of January.

Doner also promised more work on communication about challenging operating conditions with SPP and the Tennessee Valley Authority, and deeper seasonal assessments with SPP, though he said MISO had already improved communication with its southern neighbors between the January 2018 emergency and last January’s emergency, resulting in smoother coordination.

MISO will also ensure its load forecasting process is as “robust as possible” and is currently researching how its neighbors forecast load, he said.

He told the Organization of MISO States in August that the RTO hadn’t found any recommendations in the FERC report that are “overly burdensome or complex.”

In the wake of the 2019 cold snap, the state of Michigan asked MISO to improve how it manages the system during extreme weather, after portions of the state only avoided load shedding through utilities asking consumers to turn down thermostats to reduce heating demand.

In a September letter to MISO, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Public Service Commission Chair Sally Talberg called on the RTO to improve its DR process, speed up its generator interconnection queue, evaluate another long-term transmission package, put more focus on distributed resources in the MISO-OMS annual resource adequacy survey and increase transmission import capability between Michigan’s peninsulas.

The state also recommended MISO improve its gas-electric coordination and emergency preparedness.

“The increased reliance on natural gas generation for electricity and the fire at the Ray gas storage facility occurring at the same time as MISO’s declared emergency all highlight the need for improved coordination between electricity and natural gas systems during emergencies,” Whitmer and Talberg wrote.

Michigan’s recommendations were among the 37 recommendations resulting from a statewide energy assessment the PSC undertook following troubles brought on by the extreme cold. (See Mich. PSC Urges Changes After Winter Emergency.)