Dominion Virginia Power last week won the rights to develop Virginia’s “Wind Energy Area,” nearly 113,000 acres of Atlantic Ocean with the potential to support 2,000 MW of offshore wind generation. But Virginia’s largest utility is making no promises that it will exploit the resource.

“Offshore wind has the potential to provide the largest, scalable renewable resource for Virginia,” the company said in a statement after the auction, “if it can be achieved at reasonable cost to customers.”

That’s a big “if.” The company’s proposed Integrated Resource Plan, filed Aug. 30 with the Virginia State Corporation Commission, commits it to developing only a 12 MW offshore demonstration project. The base 15-year plan, which commits virtually all of its new generation to natural gas, ranked offshore wind as the most expensive of the non-dispatchable resources the company considered, far more expensive than solar or onshore wind.

Dominion estimated a plan incorporating up to 1,600 MW of offshore wind would cost about 14% more than its base plan. This includes an assumption by Dominion that a carbon tax will be enacted by 2023, increasing the cost of generating power with coal and natural gas.

The Energy Information Administration estimates the levelized cost of offshore wind at $221/MWh (2011 dollars), more than twice the $87/MWh cost of onshore wind. By comparison, EIA estimates the cost of power from new natural gas-powered combined cycle plants favored by Dominion at $66/MWh.

No Renewable Incentives

The high costs will be a particular challenge in Virginia. The state does not have a mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standard, and unlike Maryland and New Jersey, is not offering any subsidies to encourage offshore wind developers. It also does not allow retail choice, which could create a niche for a green alternative. (See previous coverage: PJM States Seek ‘First Mover’ Status.)

Dominion outdueled competitor Apex Virginia Offshore Wind, LLC in six rounds of bidding conducted by the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM).  Six other companies that were prequalified for the auction chose not to bid.  One of them, Iberdrola Renewables, told RTO Insider it decided to focus on bringing its pipeline of “more competitively priced” onshore wind projects to market.

Dominion’s $1.6 million bid won it the rights to 112,799 acres on the Outer Continental Shelf, 23.5 nautical miles off Virginia Beach. Assuming it passes an antitrust review by the Justice Department, the company will have five years to submit a Construction and Operations Plan for BOEM’s approval. Including review by state rate regulators, Dominion said it will be a decade before the first turbine could be installed.

Wind Backers Disappointed

Dominion’s victory was a disappointment to environmentalists. Beth Kemler, Virginia State Director at the Chesapeake Climate Action Network, said the company’s IRP “doesn’t leave us with high hopes for Dominion’s speedy development of this clean energy resource.”

“While Dominion came out on top …that unfortunately doesn’t guarantee that the company will actually erect a single turbine. The company could rent the wind energy area for years without moving forward with any development, preventing a more eager company from doing so,” she said.

Dominion spokesman Dan Genest noted that Dominion cannot add new generation without approval of Virginia regulators, who must judge it “prudent.”

“Anything we present as a generation project has to meet the price test,” he said. “To say we’re going to build wind at any cost — the state corporation commission is not going to allow us to do it.”

Genest said the purpose of the company’s demonstration project is to “find ways to make [offshore wind] affordable.”

Demonstration Project

The project, two six-megawatt turbines, will test the use of “twisted jacket” foundations that offer the strength of traditional structures but use substantially less steel. It was one of seven projects awarded $4 million each in federal matching funds to explore ways to lower costs of offshore wind.

Chesapeake Action’s Kemler said another bidder that is not a cost-of-service utility might be willing to develop the site as a merchant project. Other offshore projects under development in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Maryland hope to finance them through state subsidies, purchase power agreements and the sale of credits tied to mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standards.

Although Virginia has no mandatory RPS, Dominion says it will meet a voluntary goal to obtain 15% of its power from renewables by 2025. Excluding pump storage, renewables represent 3% of Virginia Power’s capacity.

“The legislative climate in the Northeast is a lot friendlier to renewables,” than Virginia, Kemler acknowledged. “But there are certainly plenty of states in PJM that have mandatory RPSs” that might be buyers of offshore wind.

Integrated Resource Plan

Virginia law requires utilites’ Integrated Resource Plans to “promote reasonable prices, reliable service, energy independence, and environmental responsibility.”

Dominion’s recommended expansion plan predicts annual increases in peak demand of 1.6% through 2028. It’s base “least-cost” plan proposes that the company add up to 7,060 MW of new gas-fired generation and 59 MW of solar and biomass, with 544 MW of demand-side management. Also included are PJM market purchases representing 127 MW of capacity and 12% of energy.

In addition, the company developed a higher-cost, lower-emission “fuel diversity” plan that could be needed to respond to potential federal rules restricting greenhouse gases.

It would eliminate one 1,375-MW combined cycle plant, and add 1,453 MW of nuclear power — a third unit at the company’s North Anna facility. Renewables are limited to 220 MW of solar, 247 MW of onshore wind and the 12 MW offshore wind demonstration project. PJM market purchases would increase to 173 MW of capacity.

The company notes that its onshore wind assets are limited to three mountaintop locations in western Virginia. By contrast, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates Virginia has a “technical potential” of 89 GW of offshore wind capacity.

NREL’s estimates don’t consider economic or market constraints that will reduce actual renewable generation. The 2,000 MW “Wind Energy Area” was mapped out by BOEM to avoid conflicts with other ocean uses such as commercial fishing and shipping traffic.