PJM will flag potential upgrade requirements earlier in the transmission study process under manual changes outlined last week to the Planning Committee.

“We’re going to bring you more violations and you’re going to have to give us more upgrades,” said Steve Herling, PJM vice president for planning.

PJM evaluates the expected transmission impact of a new generator based in part based on the historical probability that it will reach commercial operation.

In past years, studies identified many reinforcements which were ultimately not needed as projects dropped out of the backlogged queue.

Improvements in study processing have reduced the backlog. As a result, some projects have cleared the Impact Study phase (studied at 53% probability) without any apparent violations, only to have violations indicated when they are evaluated at 100% in the Facilities Study.

This can delay completion of the Facilities Study, cause costly surprises to project sponsors and hamper base case development.

As a result, PJM plans to eliminate the 19% probability for Feasibility Studies and replace it with the 53% currently used for Impact Studies. Impact Studies will use the 100% probability.

PJM will make the change for studies beginning in November (Y3 Impact Studies, due 3/31/2014 and Z1 Feasibility studies, due 2/14/2014).

PJM says the changes will give customers more accurate estimates of required upgrades before entering Facilities Studies. In addition, projects with no identified impacts at the Impact Study phase won’t remain in “limbo” awaiting Facilities Studies.

Herling said planners faced a tough tradeoff: “Do you start with a bigger list and whittle it down or start with a small list and surprise people later?

“To give people clean Impact Studies or [ones incorrectly indicating] minor upgrades … we saw as too much to ignore.”

He said upgrade requirements that occur late in the process are problems for generation developers who “have already been talking to their banks.”

The committee will be asked to endorse the changes, which affect Manual 14B, at its next meeting.

“We have to act on this quickly or we’re just going to compound the problem,” Herling said. “…If we can come up with something better in six months we will.”

PJM contact: Aaron Berner