By Rich Heidorn Jr. and William Opalka
PJM is hesitating on plans to introduce more sophisticated modeling of combined-cycle plants because of an inability to quantify potential savings and reports of escalating prices.
Currently, a combined-cycle plant must be entered into eMKT as either a combustion turbine or steam unit. Neither option captures its true capabilities, which can vary greatly based on unit configurations and use of duct burners.
PJM has been considering spending about $1 million on software from Alstom that it believes will give it more flexibility. But PJM’s Tom Hauske told the Operating Committee that PJM and the Market Monitor have been unable to quantify savings to justify the software purchase.
Joel Luna of Monitoring Analytics said the model would result in more efficient use of combined cycles with multiple configurations, allowing PJM to decide the optimal configuration depending on expected load and system conditions. It also would make the most of the peaking segment of PJM’s combined-cycle plants by allowing operators to make better decisions about how to schedule such units based on their technical parameters.
Luna said the result will be greater operational flexibility, more accurate pricing and reductions in uplift and production costs.
In 2013, there were 291 instances in which operators ran a combined-cycle plant at its minimum load for its entire operating interval — suggesting inefficient use of PJM resources.
If better software could reduce those start costs by half, Hauske said, it would produce savings of $2.4 million. “That’s not a firm number,” he cautioned.
“We have reasonable qualitative reasons [for making the change],” said Mike Bryson, executive director of system operations. “We’re a little concerned that we don’t have great quantitative stuff.”
“If we can’t quantify the savings, are we going to spend $1 million?” Luna asked stakeholders.
“A million would be worth spending,” answered Dave Pratzon of GT Power Group, which represents generators. Pratzon said he was concerned by reports that the Southwest Power Pool has reportedly put their purchase of the Alstom software on hold because of costs rising as high as $4 million.
But he added, “If we thought we had a good solution for $1 million, I think it would be worth doing.”
Duke’s Ken Jennings agreed, saying less efficient modeling inhibits the ability to regulate system frequency.
SPP spokesman Tom Kleckner said SPP had planned to implement the software in November 2015, but there were concerns about the potential cost, which led the board two weeks ago to ask for further study. “The board wanted to have a more detailed cost-benefit analysis,” he said. SPP declined to discuss specific cost figures.
Hauske said PJM is unaware of any region using the Alstom software, although he said MISO is considering a June 2015 implementation.
A MISO spokeswoman said yesterday that the software program is under review but denied plans for a 2015 deployment.
“If the evaluation demonstrates positive prospects, MISO will work with stakeholders to develop a detailed design and implementation plan,” MISO said in a statement. “At this stage, we haven’t purchased any production level product, and there is no current plan of implementing this enhancement in 2015.”
Bryson noted that PJM’s Aug. 1 white paper stressed the need for flexibility. “That’s another reason to keep it on the table,” he said.