The Planning Committee last week approved an increase in PJM’s Installed Reserve Margin despite misgivings by some who said the rise seemed counterintuitive under the RTO’s Capacity Performance program and other efforts to reduce generator outages.
The Reserve Requirement Study results were endorsed by a 100-2 vote with 35 abstentions. It increased the IRM for delivery year 2016/17 to 16.4% from 15.5% in the 2014 study. IRMs also rose for 2017/18 and 2018/19 (see table).
PJM’s Patricio Rocha-Garrido said the increase resulted from changes in capacity and load models as well as a decline in the capacity benefit of ties (CBOT) — the help PJM can expect from imports during peak loads.
The forecast pool requirement (FPR), which determines the amount of capacity procured in the annual Base Residual Auction, also is slated to rise, to 109.52% of peak for 2016/17, up from 108.96%. Rises also are forecast for 2017/18 and 2018/19.
Steve Lieberman of Old Dominion Electric Cooperative said ODEC had too many questions about the methodology to endorse the results. “We don’t understand how, with CP and everything that is required of generators, [PJM’s analysis] will result in an IRM that’s higher,” he said.
Carl Johnson, representing the PJM Public Power Coalition, also abstained, saying stakeholders have repeatedly raised similar criticisms of PJM’s modeling. With the “fundamental change” in capacity assumptions under CP, “It’s probably time for us to undertake a formal process for reevaluating how this is done,” he said.
James Wilson, a consultant to state consumer advocates, presented a harsh critique of PJM’s methodology, saying there was no reason for planners to increase the IRM or FPR.
Wilson said the results were dictated in part by PJM’s “rather arbitrary” choice of the 2003-2012 period for its load model, one of 40 he said it could have selected.
He also disputed planners’ claim that PJM’s and its neighbors’ annual peaks are becoming more coincident. Wilson said PJM’s PRISM modeling software treats all of the RTO’s neighbors as a single “world,” ignoring their diversity.
“PJM is blessed with multiple diverse and substantial neighbors,” he said. “We greatly underrepresent the potential assistance from these neighbors.”
David “Scarp” Scarpignato of Calpine defended PJM’s modeling, saying there were “20 to 30” input assumptions that could increase or decrease the IRM and FPR. “I don’t think the supply side has laid out all the counter” arguments, he said.
Scarp said the IRM is based on meeting summer peaks, while CP was designed in response to problems with generators’ winter performance, including mechanical failures and access to natural gas.
“Calpine is a large gas generation fleet,” Scarp said. “We don’t have problems getting gas during the summer. That’s not changing because of CP.”
Winter Study Criteria, Uplift Added to Planning Manual
Members endorsed PJM’s first criteria for reliability studies focused on meeting winter peaks.
The criteria, outlined in Manual 14B: PJM Region Transmission Planning Process, define the winter peak period as 06:00-09:00 and 17:00-20:00 from Dec. 1 through Feb. 28.
The studies will include thermal and voltage evaluations; solutions to identified problems will be developed through the Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee.
The criteria will be effective for baseline studies on Jan. 1 and for interconnection queue requests received after the effective date of the revised manual language. The criteria are scheduled to be considered by the Markets and Reliability Committee on Oct. 22.
Members also endorsed a separate change to Manual 14B, adding energy market uplift payments as an issue to be considered in the planning process when developing transmission upgrades for operational performance.
Task Force to Seek Fix for Late Filings in Interconnection Queue
Members endorsed the charter for the Earlier Queue Submittal Task Force, which will seek new ways to discourage late entries into the interconnection queue.
PJM had instituted an escalating filing fee in an effort to encourage generators to file their interconnection requests earlier, but the change was “complicated and ineffective at dissuading late entry,” the RTO said. The influx of 11th-hour entries results in a higher proportion of deficient filings and interferes with planners’ ability to start feasibility analyses. (See PJM to Try Again to Speed Interconnection Filings.)
The group, which will be facilitated by PJM’s Andrew Gledhill, will seek a solution that could be implemented by May 1, 2016.
FirstEnergy Removing Black Oak SPS
FirstEnergy is removing the special protection scheme for the Black Oak 500/138-kV #3 transformer.
The scheme was put in place in 2010 after PJM identified potential overloads with the loss of the Black Oak-Hatfield 500-kV line.
FirstEnergy said the scheme is no longer necessary because of generation retirements, the rerating of the transformer in 2012 and completion of the Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line (TrAIL).
— Rich Heidorn Jr. and Amanda Durish Cook
