By Tom Kleckner

ERCOT will add about 9,300 MW of additional capacity by 2019, relieving concerns that the grid’s reserve margins would drop as load continued to grow, according to a new analysis.

The updated 10-year Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report released last week shows a continuing rise in planning reserve margins — topping 20% in the “next several years.” The Texas grid operator’s reserve margin has stood at 13.75% since December 2010.

The latest CDR shows about 6,250 MW of planned resources have become eligible to be included since the May 2015 report (a net of 3,660 MW after discounting wind nameplate additions). Planning reserve margins increased for all years except 2016.

Gas turbines and wind and solar farms account for much of the expected new capacity. ERCOT said solar capacity should increase from its current 193 MW of installed capacity to 1,789 MW by 2017. Nameplate wind capacity is expected to grow 45% to more than 4,200 MW over the same period, while natural gas capacity is projected to grow 1% to more than 51,000 MW.

ERCOT’s director of system planning, Warren Lasher, said the new generation was responding to the state’s continued growth. “We continue to see the demand for electricity here increase as more people and businesses move into Texas,” he said during a Dec. 1 conference call.

“The generation mix is also growing and changing,” Lasher said. He said some of the capacity growth could be offset by fossil unit retirements as “changing environmental rules begin to take effect.”

ERCOT forecasts a peak of more than 70,500 MW next summer, growing to almost 78,000 MW by summer 2025.

Two years ago, ERCOT was predicting a 20% decrease in its reserve margin. The grid operator had come perilously close to rolling blackouts during a blistering summer of 2011 and plant construction was practically nil.

Recent summer temperatures have not reached predictions and new capacity has come online since then, but ERCOT also revised its planning standards last year. Staff has incorporated growth trends in customer accounts, or premises, to better project regional demand growth.

“We have been able to provide a more accurate look at future demand and energy use,” said Calvin Opheim, ERCOT’s manager of load forecasting and analysis. “I’ve been very happy with how our new forecasting model has performed.”

The latest CDR forecasts peak loads averaging more than 500 MW higher through 2021 than the forecast used for the May CDR. ERCOT said the report is based on average weather over the past 13 years and includes additional electricity demand from a liquefied natural gas facility near Houston, which is scheduled to be fully operational by summer 2019.

The CDR’s data on generation comes from information provided by resource owners.

The report counts as capacity 4,700 MW of coal generation ERCOT expects to retire as a result of EPA’s Clean Power Plan and Regional Haze Program. The draft Regional Haze rule would require scrubber upgrades or retrofits at 12 coal-fired units by 2020. A final rule is expected in several months. The next CDR update is scheduled for release in May 2016.

ERCOT Sets Another New Wind Peak

ERCOT set a new record for wind generation Nov. 25 with 12,971 MW. That accounted for nearly 37% of the grid’s load at the time (9:10 p.m.).

The wind peak is ERCOT’s third since Oct. 21.