By William Opalka

WESTBOROUGH, Mass. — Load growth remains low in New England while solar power generation is expected to grow even faster than previously predicted, according to a draft study of the region’s power trends.

ISO-NE staff presented the draft of its annual Capacity, Energy, Loads and Transmission forecast at the Planning Advisory Committee meeting on Tuesday.

“The draft forecast [for solar] is 30% higher than last year’s final forecast,” said Jon Black, ISO-NE’s manager of load forecasting. He cited increased state support for the resource along with Congress’ unexpected extension of the investment tax credit last year.

The 2015 forecast predicted 1,620 MW of solar PV at the end of this year, rising through 2024 to 2,449 MW. In the preliminary 2016 draft, the forecast for the end of this year is essentially flat but rises to 3,092 MW at the end of 2024, an increase of 26%.

The new forecast extends a year further, through 2025, when 3,214 MW of solar is predicted, 31% above the final year in last year’s forecast.

Black said the forecast has been refined to include more comprehensive data from distributed asset owners, as well as policy changes. For example, Connecticut’s renewable energy credit program is expected to encourage the development of 300 MW of solar and Vermont’s renewable portfolio standard has a carve-out for 25 MW of PV, Black said.

This year’s forecast, which includes behind-the-meter PV for the first time, also reduces load forecasts and net energy use.

The new study forecasts a 50/50 summer peak of 28,966 MW for 2016, a slight reduction from last year’s forecast for the year. It forecasts a 2024 summer peak of 31,493 MW, a 2% reduction from last year’s study and a 1.1% compound annual growth rate over 2016.

(The 50/50 estimate represents the mean value in a normal probability distribution, meaning there is a 50% chance the load will be higher than the forecast and an equal chance of being lower.)

Net of passive demand response and behind-the-meter solar, the 50/50 peak for 2024 is forecast at 27,060 MW, down almost 3% from last year’s study and a compound annual growth rate of 0.1%.

Energy efficiency, as reported by state utility commissions, is expected to remain stable. Minor increases of its use in some areas were offset by decreases in other parts of the region, according to ISO-NE.

The final CELT report for 2016 will be published on May 1.