By Rory Sweeney

Joining others in raising the alarm, NERC released a short-term special assessment last week that highlighted the reliability risks created by increased dependence on natural gas for electricity generation.

The report focused on the four regions with gas-fired generation penetration of more than 40%: New England, New York, ERCOT and California. It found that most regions, while potentially at risk if a major supply interruption occurs during a period with exceptionally high load, are prepared to address it with contingency plans and alternative pipeline routes.

The lone exception was the Southern California region, where the shutdown of the Aliso Canyon storage facility earlier this year is straining the system. NERC reiterated warnings that the Los Angeles area could be at risk for outages for the next year. (See Aliso Canyon Gas Restrictions Cloud CAISO Summer Outlook.)

NERC recommended that it and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council convene a meeting with industry stakeholders to identify reliability impacts and develop mitigation strategies.

18-Month Forecast

NERC compared generation expected to be unavailable with forecasted loads over the next 18 months to identify potential times when demand might outstrip supply. The report then analyzed the region’s infrastructure and planning to determine the likelihood of service disruptions.

The assessment pointed out that supply disruptions are possible in both the winter, when gas is needed for heating, and the summer, when air conditioning increases electric demand. Greater coordination between the natural gas and electric industries would help mitigate those risks, the report said.

The report recommended continuing to account for reliability risks from extreme weather events and large-scale supply disruptions and enhancing coordination during supply shortages. It also recommended two strategies ISO-NE and PJM have encouraged through new capacity market rules: dual-fuel generators and firm gas-delivery contracts.