By Rory Sweeney

While FERC’s technical conference last week was ostensibly focused on reliability, resiliency became the theme as many panelists agreed: It’s not possible to avoid a major grid disruption forever (AD16-15).

Speaking from recent experience, Miranda Keating Erickson, vice president of operations for the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), put a fine point on it.

“We must remember that no amount of standards can prevent all events from happening that will impact the reliability of our electricity system. Snow storms will happen. Ice storms will happen. Tornados and hurricanes will happen. As I well know, floods and wildfires will happen,” she said, referring to the Fort McMurray wildfire, which has destroyed 2,400 homes and buildings and caused the largest wildfire evacuation in the province’s history since it began May 1.

“And let’s not kid ourselves; at some point, somewhere, cyber and physical attacks will happen. That means resiliency is just as important as prevention. It is critical that we also focus on our ability to minimize impacts and improve response and recovery time when these events do occur.”

FERC called the conference to mark the 10 years since Congress gave the commission the power to impose mandatory reliability standards. The commission asked speakers to identify the accomplishments of the last decade and the challenges of the future.

Weather vs. Operational Failures

Gerry Cauley, CEO of NERC, which was designated by FERC to develop and enforce the standards, started the conference by noting that the 10 largest grid “integrity events” each year from 2012 through 2015 were caused by weather. The last operational issue to make the list was in September 2011.

Cauley, however, cautioned that the shift to natural gas and intermittent generation will require renewed focus on issues such as ramping, frequency control, voltage control and inertia. “As we move forward with this evolution, however, we are experiencing a change of operating characteristics for the grid,” he said.

He highlighted measures being recommended by NERC’s Essential Reliability Services Task Force that would provide better monitoring and control of frequency and voltage.

Gas Dependence

Others agreed that the increasing dependence on natural gas generation is impacting grid stability.

FERC Commissioner Tony Clark noted that it’s a “challenging prospect to conceive how those [gas] assets can be physically protected.”

Paul Koonce, CEO of Dominion Generation Group, who spoke on behalf of the Edison Electric Institute, urged the importance of building out the necessary natural gas infrastructure, including long-haul pipelines, to ensure the gas can be moved easily.

Paul Stockton, the managing director of D.C.-based consulting firm Sonecon, thanked FERC for its recent reports on the interdependence of the natural gas and electricity industries, calling them “terrific work.”

“I would ask you to continue to focus on the challenges of the resilience of black-start capabilities … [and] the increasing reliance of many companies on natural gas as a source of fuel for their generators,” said Stockton, former assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense. “This, my friends, deserves careful attention.”

Physical Security, Cyber Threats

Stockton was among several speakers who noted growing concerns with cyber and physical security. Cauley cited the threat of a physical attack on infrastructure as his greatest worry “because of the potential long-term impact and the difficulty recovering, possibly lasting weeks and months.” (See Critics: Koppel Doomsday Scenario Ignores Prep.)

Patricia Hoffman, the Energy Department’s assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability, said the growing impact of distributed energy resources has created new needs. “The need for new metrics, new kinds of data and new data-sharing protocols is just as important at the distribution level as at the bulk-power level,” she said. “In fact, this need is probably more challenging than at the bulk-power level, if only because we are starting from a less developed base.

“The grid is the battery for the system. It’s basically the backup for the system,” she said. She voiced concern that security threats will be “malicious in nature” and not addressed simply by preparing for N-1 contingencies. “Unfortunately, these investments are not valued by the market.”

Clark expressed hope that NERC’s cost-effectiveness method pilot program will result in new strategies. “Personally, I hope [it] will lead us to some important discoveries regarding how costs can be better contemplated and assessed in the standards-development process.”

Koonce also supported many of NERC’s recommendations and counseled that FERC review issues in a “broad context and with systemwide considerations.”

“Corporate strategic and management actions rest on a strong foundation, and decisions are made with great care and deliberation. Application of these business principles to NERC and electric reliability would naturally invite broad long-term strategic questions, questions that will very likely yield different answers when compared to looking at day-to-day problems or events, or individual components,” he said.

Koonce said that EEI believes version 5 of NERC’s Critical Infrastructure Protection standards is an “appropriate and reasonable approach.” But, he added, “vendor management risks under consideration by the commission for potential new NERC requirements to address cyber-related asset procurement raises some broad questions on the business risks beyond the control of jurisdictional entities, as well as the reach of commission jurisdiction.”

Flexibility was also a big concern for Erickson, who noted AESO’s ability to consider NERC standards and decide if they want to adopt them.

For Joseph Eto, a staff scientist with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the question was what’s not being considered? “Not all that counts can be counted and not all that can be counted counts,” he said, quoting an adage. He urged expanding metrics on interruptions to calculate the economic impacts on customers.

Complexity, Standardization

Carnegie Mellon University professor Marija Ilić summed it up, saying what worries her most is the sheer complexity of the system. The 2003 blackout could have happened anywhere, she said, but also could have been prevented if complexity were handled in more systematic way.

“It’s my belief that we’re going to have more of those events,” she said.

While there was consensus on the importance of maintenance and tree trimming, there was disagreement over whether the industry should standardize equipment. Several industry representatives noted that equipment is sized specifically for its intended use. Arizona State University professor Anna Scaglione, however, said resistance to standardization was as much about lack of vision as engineering — a “cultural problem of industry,” she called it, where no one is considering the interoperability of equipment.

Mexico Looking to Interconnect

There was also input from the Navy and Mexico.

Chris Murray, the project support lead for the Navy’s Renewable Energy Program Office, said the military branch is highly supportive of efforts to increase energy security and is open to having infrastructure projects sited on its properties throughout the country. “If there’s land on our base that you think makes sense, let us know,” he said. “We are marching down a path that most folks haven’t done in the government. … Things are changing and we need your help.”

Hector Beltran, the director general of Mexico’s Energy Regulatory Commission, said his country is making strides to develop its bulk-power systems and hopes to create a system reliable enough to integrate with the North American system very soon.

Mexico awarded its first round of long-term generation contracts in March, he said, and plans to build a series of interconnections along the border with the U.S. so that the networks can freely interact with each other. He noted that the following day, representatives from both the Mexican and American power industries were meeting in Mexico City to identify collaboration opportunities.