By William Opalka

Dynamic. Changing. Challenging.

Those words, which NYISO CEO Brad Jones uses frequently, are themes echoed throughout the 2016 NYISO Power Trends report.

New York’s Reforming the Energy Vision, the Clean Energy Standard (CES), distributed generation and customer engagement also feature prominently in the report, which was released today.

“The power market is changing as much or more than I’ve seen it in the last 20 years,” Jones told RTO Insider in an interview. “It’s a fantastic place for the NYISO to be in, in the middle of all this dramatic change.

“We wring our hands around here all the time, but I feel very good that we have the capabilities here to meet these challenges,” Jones continued.

Nuclear Power

Part of the hand-wringing concerns the possible loss of much of the nuclear fleet, which is unable to earn sufficient revenues in an energy market dominated by cheap natural gas. New York’s average wholesale electric energy price last year was $44.09/MWh, the lowest in the 15-year history of the state’s competitive markets.

Without a financial lifeline, three nuclear plants in western New York are under threat of closure in early 2017. State regulators are considering a zero-emission credit to subsidize the upstate plants.

“The real key is that we do not properly value the carbon in our markets,” Jones said. (See Lack of Carbon Pricing Distorting RTO Markets, CEOs, Ex-Regulator Say.)

Clean Energy Standard Requires Transmission

The CES requires the state to procure 50% of its energy from renewable resources by 2030. That would require 75,000 GWh of renewable power annually, according to an estimate by the state Public Service Commission. By themselves, that goal would require either 25 GW of solar, 15 GW of wind or 4 GW of hydro, most of that in northern or western New York, far from the load centers in and around New York City.

The city, Long Island and the Lower Hudson Valley use 58% of the state’s electricity. But while more than 80% of the new generation since 2000 has been downstate, the region still produces only 40% of the state’s total, the report notes.

“What this speaks to is the need for more transmission,” Jones said. “Transmission is the key for us to be able to move green power from remote areas to the high-demand areas of the state.”

Flat Load Growth

The increasing shift to renewables will come during a period of flat load growth. “Year-over-year growth in the overall usage of electric energy from New York’s bulk electric system is expected to flatten or decline slightly over the next decade,” the report says.

Other trends highlighted in the report include:

• Shifting patterns of electricity demand because of energy efficiency and distributed energy resources: “Distribution-level solar photovoltaics, in 2016, have an estimated summer capability of more than 250 MW. That total is expected to triple by 2026.”
• Aging infrastructure requiring replacement and upgrades: “More than 80% of New York’s high-voltage transmission lines went into service before 1980. Of the state’s approximately 11,000 circuit-miles of transmission lines, nearly 4,700 circuit-miles will require replacement within the next 30 years, according to New York’s transmission-owning utilities and power authorities.”
• Increasing choices for customers as a result of public policies aimed at reducing emissions and expanding renewable power.

The report concludes with a plea to continue the state’s commitment to competitive markets — a commitment some observers say could be undermined by generation subsidies and long-term contracting for clean power.

The report notes that five of the seven reliability assessments the ISO has conducted since 2005 identified emerging reliability needs. “In each case, markets responded with resources to address those needs, avoiding the need to call upon regulatory solutions,” the report notes.