By Robert Mullin

California lawmakers last week passed a bill to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.

The State Assembly approved the measure on a 48-31 vote, largely along party lines. Two Democrats opposed the bill, with one abstaining, while just one Republican voted in favor. The bill breezed through the State Senate on a vote of 25-13 and is expected to be signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown.

The bill builds on the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, the landmark legislation that required the state to reduce its emission to 1990 levels by 2020. It also codifies an executive order issued last year by Brown, making it more difficult for a future governor to roll back efforts to reduce the state’s emissions.

“Today, the Assembly speaker, most Democrats and one brave Republican passed SB 32, rejecting the brazen deception of the oil lobby and their Trump-inspired allies who deny science and fight every reasonable effort to curb global warming,” Brown said in a statement in response to the Assembly’s vote.

“Today’s action sends an unmistakable signal to investors of California’s commitment to clean energy and clean air,” said Sen. Fran Pavley (D), author of the bill. “This will trigger more investment and more jobs in our thriving clean-energy sector and solidify California’s leadership in demonstrating to the world that we can combat climate change while also spurring economic growth.”

The bill affects the electric, manufacturing and transportation sectors. The state Air Resources Board (ARB) will determine specific reductions by industry.

Utilities — which could benefit from the electrification of the transportation fleet — have not opposed the bill and have been preparing for the change since last year’s executive order. The state’s renewable portfolio standard — 50% by 2030 — is expected to generate most of the needed reductions for the power sector. (See California Policy Goals to Require Significant Transmission Upgrades.)

The oil industry lobbied hard against the legislation, which faced uncertainty since stalling in the Assembly last summer. Prospects soured after a group of Democrats representing low-income communities opposed the bill based on concerns that efforts to reduce the carbon content in gasoline would translate into higher fuel prices, which disproportionately affect people with lower incomes. Some lawmakers also complained that the bill provided the ARB with too much latitude to develop and implement emission-reduction programs without sufficient public oversight.

To address both concerns, the legislature last week passed a companion bill (AB 197) that will put two legislators on the ARB as nonvoting members and require the board to report annually to a newly created joint legislative committee on climate change policies. It also directs the ARB to prioritize emissions rules and regulations that limit economic impact on the state’s disadvantaged communities and regions reliant on agriculture.

Implementation of SB 32 was contingent on the passage of AB 197.

The current version of SB 32 does not extend the state’s cap-and-trade system, which is set to expire after 2020. The California Chamber of Commerce is challenging the program in court, contending that the emissions trading scheme constitutes a tax requiring approval by a two-thirds majority of the legislature.

That legal uncertainty has undermined investor confidence in the market for California carbon credits. The ARB-run auction Aug. 16 saw buyers pick up less than 35% of available allowances, following a dismal 10.5% showing in May. Previous auctions have typically been fully subscribed, providing significant revenues for the state.

Still, in light of last week’s Assembly vote, Brown expressed optimism about the program.

“With these bills, California’s charting a clear path on climate beyond 2020 and we’ll continue to work to shore up the cap-and-trade program, reduce super pollutants and direct more investment to disadvantaged communities,” Brown said.